Following the filing of 34 charges against Donald Trump by New York justice in early April, the mobilization of the Republican base behind the former president of the United States was clearly visible. This mobilization gives the impression that the Republican Party is united and that it is preparing effectively for the presidential election of 2024.
However, since the mid-term elections of November 2022, growing tensions have appeared within the party. The poor performance of the Republicans in these elections, the current dominance of Trump over the party and the significant difficulties of Kevin McCarthy in getting elected to the presidency of the House of Representatives show that the political formation is far from being united in view of the next presidential election.
For more than a decade, and especially since Donald Trump arrived in the White House in 2016, the Republican Party has become more ideological, more rigid and more populist. Since then, several notable personalities have left the formation and its moderate wing has lost much influence.
That said, it is clear that this party remains faithful to its conservative philosophy on several issues, such as the limited role of the state and a tax system that reduces government spending and taxes. Added to these economic elements is a social conservatism that directly affects the choice of individuals. We think of the opposition to any form of gun control or the fully assumed desire to reduce access to abortion.
After 15 ballots, the Republicans’ takeover of the House of Representatives was laborious and this slim victory benefited Trump’s most loyal allies. This unprecedented contemporary saga has therefore left its mark.
Today, McCarthy has no choice but to compromise with the Trumpist wing of the party, which considerably limits his room for maneuver on the legislative level. So-called “MAGA” (pro-Trump) representatives, such as Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, often prevent McCarthy from finding compromises to advance the agenda most moderate of the party. They succeed in imposing actions that further polarize the work of Congress.
During Donald Trump’s impeachment, the expression of loyalty from his militant base was particularly observable within the Republican caucus in the House of Representatives. In the Senate, reaction was mixed, and all observers noted the silence of influential leader Mitch McConnell.
For Republicans betting on the advent of a revival, it appears that the candidate considered the most serious and threatening to former President Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, seems to be losing initiative. , while he has not even officially declared his candidacy yet.
That being said, the Republican tensions are not limited only to the question of personalities. The recent leak of documents attributed to a young soldier about secrets related to national security and various international issues has lifted the veil on another split in the Republican camp.
At first, the Republican leadership of the House and the Senate unanimously condemned the gesture, welcoming the arrest of the main suspect. Shortly after, Trumpist representative Marjorie Taylor Greene instead presented him as a victim in this case. Although isolated, this surprising position was expressed without any reprimand from leader McCarthy.
Yet the reversal of Roe v. Wade concerning access to abortion as well as the multiplication of mass killings mobilized voters in a marked way. Polls indicate that segments of the electorate including young people, women and independent voters are more likely to speak out and go to the polls. The elections last November demonstrated that this mobilization does not favor the Republican Party.
In addition, the congressional investigation into the violent events of January 6, 2021 leaves traces. Those who deny the legitimacy of the results of the last election in favor of President Joe Biden are appearing less and less. Trump still sticks to his stolen election thesis, but it’s clearly not a stance that will bear fruit in 2024, and top Republican strategists know it.
In short, we can expect that the tensions among the Republicans will not disappear anytime soon. If more charges are leveled against Donald Trump, this time around the 2020 presidential election or the events of January 6, 2021, we may see them escalate further.
Erratum: In a previous version of the text, it was indicated that Marjorie Taylor Green was the representative of South Carolina. However, she is rather the representative of Georgia. Our apologies.
