US President Donald Trump could meet, according to the Munich-based ifo Institute, the German car maker by special duties on cars. The United States should increase the import duties permanently by 25 percent, could halve the German car exports to the United States in the long term, such as from calculations of the Institute. “These duties would reduce the total car exports from Germany to 7.7 percent, which would correspond to a value of 18.4 billion euros”, says ifo-expert Gabriel Felbermayr.

exports to other countries and sectors could mitigate this effect somewhat, there remain, however, in the case of a decrease of the total German exports to 11.6 billion euros, said Felbermayr.

A decision on possible customs duties is getting closer. On Sunday, the deadline for a decision by the US Department of Commerce ends about whether the Import of cars and supply the national security of the country affected. Should this be the case, could Trump are within 90 days about whether or not he wants to charge special duties. Last special were brought to customs duties in the amount of 25 percent into the conversation. This Trump wants to reduce the American trade deficit and Jobs in the United States.

when exactly is the decision of the Ministry is public, it is so far unclear – next Monday is the holiday. The Ministry would not comment in advance of the decision.

Trump Should raise the special duties, it could reduce according to the Ifo Institute, the value added of the German car industry of around five percent, or around seven billion euros. Within the EU, about 60 percent of the damage to the economy would account for the force of the Federal Republic of Germany.

the United States could refrain from special duties

in December, a Delegation from the German car was made Manager of VW, Daimler and BMW to Trump to convince him, on special duties. The German car industry warns of foreclosure, and refers to the importance of the German automotive manufacturers and component suppliers for the US labour market. “2018, approximately 118,000 employees in their works were directly employed, around 8,000 more than the previous year,” from the German Association of the automotive industry (VDA). “While we have 2018 produces around 750,000 vehicles in the German plants that were only exported a total of 470,000 new cars from Germany to the United States.”

there Would be no counter-reaction by other countries, could benefit US in the long term of special tariffs significantly, says Ifo-expert Felbermayr. “Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes & Co would be reinforced to produce in the United States and the customs duties.” Who export to the USA, had to reduce the prices. In addition, the United States would rake in billion of customs revenue. The Problem: “against customs duties that make a mess of everything.”

the previously imposed special duties on steel and aluminum, the EU had to respond with import barriers on U.S. products, such as on Whiskey. And here are the consequences: already, The Whiskey exports from the United States in the EU have declined, according to the US industry Association The Distilled Spirits Council recently. This, however, is comparatively small sums. To not want a possible reaction to US-car duties for the comment on the EU Commission for the time being.