Britain threatens in the event of leaving the EU without an agreement to be the worst economic crisis since the Second world war. This is the result of a Brexit-scenarios of the British Central Bank, the Bank of England. Accordingly, the economy would shrink in the case of a non-Brexit within one year to eight percent. In addition, the British pound is likely to lose 25% in value against the US Dollar, while the inflation rate rises to 6.5 percent. Also, a rise in unemployment expected by the analysts.
The consequences would be worse than in the case of the international financial crisis in 2008. At that time, the British economy had shrunk by 6.25 percent. A so-called No Deal would make the economy according to the Bank of England’s so hard, because the financial markets lose confidence in the British institutions and the new border controls deliveries clearly would be delayed. In addition, workers would leave the country EN masse. Although the Central Bank, this scenario considers the most probable, but plausible. “Our task is not to hope for the Best, but prepare for the worst,” said Central Bank chief Mark Carney.
However, even Leaving with an exit agreement would have a significant negative impact on the economy. A – as the British government desired the smooth progress of the trade and with unchanged immigration conditions would grow the economy by 0.6 per cent less than if the UK remained in the EU. Without immigration and with restrictions on free trade, the withdrawal of the contract, the slump in economic growth would be 3.9 percent.
Theresa May, confirmed
“The analysis shows that we will be in the future poorer than it is today,” said Prime Minister Theresa May in the weekly question hour in the Parliament. You acknowledge, however, that the UK has with the EU negotiated exit agreement “better off”. May is currently promoting in their own country to vote for the Brexit agreement, have adopted the remaining 27 EU member States last Sunday. It is completely open whether May during the vote on the 11. December will be a majority in Parliament for the exit text. An unregulated Brexit is possible.
British Finance Minister Philip Hammond advertises for the agreement. The present agreement was, under the circumstances, the most cost-effective for the UK, said Hammond. From a purely economic point of view, the Brexit have its price, admitted to Hammond in the BBC. But: “what is it that makes the Prime Minister, is to minimize the cost.” Hammond said this in the BBC of “moderate impact” on the British economy as by the agreement, which is the “best way to leave the EU”.
According to a Bank’s stress test of the Bank of England, the banks would be, at least to a fair Brexit apply prepared. None of the seven largest banks in Britain needed government assistance. In the case of the company and the authorities, the situation is different. Polls suggested that the country was not yet fully prepared for a Brexit, without agreement, said the Central Bank chief Carney at the presentation of the reports.
the UK is on 29. March 2019 from the EU withdrawal. In 17 months of negotiations, nearly 600 pages of comprehensive exit contract was negotiated. The terms and conditions of the separation are to be written – about the rights of EU citizens in the UK and final payments of the UK in the EU, of an estimated around 45 billion euros. Is also provided a transition period until the end of 2020, in the UK in the EU single market and customs Union. This could be extended until the end of 2022.