What would have happened to the USSR, if the Soviet army was still in Afghanistan

Another 14/02/20 What would have happened to the USSR, if the Soviet army was still in Afghanistan

10 years of being limited contingent of Soviet troops in Afghanistan have changed a lot, both in our country and in the world. Could the failure of the USSR leadership to send troops to the Afghan Republic to direct the course of history on a different path?

to Enter or not to enter the

After the mutiny in the Afghan Herat in March 1979, Islamist forces official in Kabul asked Moscow to intervene in the situation. The Politburo, after weighing the possible negative consequences, rejected the Afghan leadership’s request. However, in combat readiness were given to Soviet troops on the Afghan border, began preparations for a possible landing in Afghanistan air assault.

In July 1979 by order of Jimmy Carter increased us aid to anti-government forces in Afghanistan, which provoked the intervention of the Soviet Union. Political scientist Zbigniew Brzezinski, at that time adviser of the us President, later admitted: “We didn’t push the Russians to intervene, but increased the likelihood that they’ll do it.”

the Soviet government after six months of deliberation in December 1979, took the decision to send troops to the Afghan Republic. This decision was not unanimously supported, and the more the USSR was involved in the Afghan conflict, the more they become opponents of the country’s participation in a foreign war.

the Last Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev has called the invasion of Afghanistan as a political error, was dictated by purely ideological approach to international politics. Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on defense Franz Klintsevich noted that the interference in Afghan Affairs was a grave mistake, however, not to send troops was simply impossible.

referring again to Brzezinski once said that “Afghanistan is the soft underbelly of the Soviet Union, which it’s time to make firmer”, it becomes clear duality statements Klintsevich: both the decisions to enter or not to enter, would be for the USSR to serious consequences with little predictable result. The result of the first decision known to all. What could happen if we did not intervene in this conflict?

enemy at the gates

Afghanistan is a key region in ensuring stability in Central Asia – the place of the traditional rivalry between Russia and the West. In the XIX century it faced the Russian and British interests in the twentieth – Soviet and American. Which came in September 1979 to power in Afghanistan, Hafizullah Amin was in every way to flirt with USA. Earlier in April this year after the Islamic revolution in Iran, is beginning to grow the influence of Iran, which threatened to spread to the Soviet Central Asian Republic.

the Soviet leadership came to the conclusion, if not to take decisive action, we not only lose in the face of Afghanistan a friendly state, but will miss his influence in this important region.

President of the Foundation for national and international security Leonid Shershnev sure that in case of delay with interference in the Afghan conflict we would lose control over a key strategic area in the Central Asian region, which connects us with friendly India as a whole would reduce its geopolitical influence in the world.

the Vacant seat would have quickly taken by the Americans, and on Afghan soil is likely is be a ballistic missile “Pershing” with a range of over 1.5 thousand kilometers or cruise warheads “Tomahawk”, slower but with a range of about 5.5 thousand kilometers. The first would threaten the entire Soviet Central Asia, and the second could theoretically reach Moscow. To have over 2.5 thousand kilometers of the Soviet-Afghan border, installing nuclear warheads, the Soviet Union could not afford.

However, by entering troops in Afghanistan, the Soviet Union has caused even more activethe spine of the us military in the region, primarily in Pakistan. Increased deliveries of weapons and NATO instructors worked hard to prepare efficient Islamist groups. The labors of the Americans we know is “al Qaeda”*, Taliban*, and the overall growth of terrorism in the middle East. Could this not be in the absence of rivalry between the USA and the USSR in the Afghan conflict? This question is rather rhetorical.

to Preserve and increase

As we know, the Soviet Union in the Afghan war lost killed, died as a result of injury or disease and missing about 26 thousand people. Without the fateful decision of the Politburo of these terrible victims would not be. In addition, the result of the increased financial requirements of the Soviet government was forced to spend on the war huge amounts of money. According to American experts, annually on maintaining the 40th army, the Soviet authorities have allocated up to $ 8 billion.

But the money could be put on reforms that have emerged in the country in the early 80s. in addition, if the USSR got involved in the war us would bypass the economic sanctions, the government was finally able to seriously upgrade the equipment, concluding agreements with international partners. And perhaps we would be waiting for the integration of the CMEA in the Western European economic space.

the pending collapse

Many domestic and foreign experts expressed the opinion that the Afghan war was one of the decisive facts that prepared the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 1987, major General Leonid Shershnev wrote to the Politburo a Memorandum, which indicated that the delay in the withdrawal of forces could bring the collapse of the Soviet Union. But it was not heeded.

Despite some positive results, this war has weakened the geopolitical position of the Soviet Union. Our state has become more vulnerable to information attacks and blatant provocation of the West, the socialist system is increasingly discredited even in the eyescitizens. The country was falling apart.

in addition, a response to the presence of Soviet troops in Afghanistan was the increased influence of representatives of extremist organizations on the public of the Central Asian and Caucasian republics, awakening separatist sentiments there. It is not excluded that if the Afghan campaign, managed to keep the Soviet Union, or at least delay its collapse.

To the Soviet case there are no

it Can be assumed that if the USSR got involved in the Afghan war, the US would have behaved in the region differently. Predictably began active construction of military bases, airfields and other strategic objects. How would the freedom-loving Afghans who are at the stage of tribal relations, would have taken such products of Western democracy? Sooner or later it would have resulted in a confrontation, perhaps pohlesche Soviet Afghan.

it is possible that the expanded conflict would be connected Iran and China, for which stability in the region – a pledge its own security. Their interests would have to protect and the Soviet Union entered the war already under other circumstances. For Americans, this war could become another Vietnam, poleksi serious political and economic crisis. In this situation the ocean for a long time would forget about the interference in the Affairs of the Soviet Union.

*”the Taliban” is a forbidden organization in Russia

*”al-Qaeda” is a forbidden organization in Russia

Taras Repin

© Russian Seven

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