The war over Ukraine is about so much more than – Ukraine. But it starts with Ukraine: if the West, not least Germany, which is now suddenly supposed to become a “leading power”, as the SPD chairman says, of all things – if the West doesn’t know exactly what will happen in the end If there is war, then it will be even more dangerous than it already is. Because the G7, NATO and EU are being observed around the world, and depending on how they fare, their influence decreases or increases.
But it has to rise because by no means all countries in the world are behind the western course against Russia in the Ukraine war. China, India, Brazil, South Africa – if you add Indonesia and Argentina to that… They connect, more or less, with Russia. Just for comparison: the G7 have almost 800 million people behind them, the above-mentioned several billion.
And Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin has already announced that all sanctions, new and old, would be circumvented. That they would not hit Russia, he added. Why? More Chinese cars would soon be driving in Russia and Indian supermarket chains would open their branches. Russian oil now flows to China, India imports Russian coal. A list of shame – and every point a warning signal.
That is why it is so important that the much-vaunted unity leads to a convincing strategy. Because they know what they have to do: the G7 countries have to reach agreement among themselves, then with the other Europeans in the EU and also with the NATO partners, that Ukraine – yes, what: should win the war? Or that “Russia must not win and Ukraine must not lose”? This is where the blur begins.
Not least in the federal government. Listen to the Chancellor and the Foreign Minister, how contradictory that sounds. But there is a fundamental difference, not just in words, but in purpose. If Ukraine is to really be able to win the war, then everything that happens will be too little, too late.
Determination looks different. What does Germany want? Looking and talking stoically is not leadership. In Germany it is not even really clear who makes what decisions about weapons and where. The secretary of defense still doesn’t know what a tank is; but only marginally. After months, just seven self-propelled howitzers have been delivered. Norway gave up 22. Marten, leopard – none. And the Cheetah, an anti-aircraft gun tank, only gets 58,000 rounds of ammo.
Meanwhile, the Russian army is firing on all cylinders, shelling targets far beyond the Donbass and even back into Kyiv, sending more and more soldiers regardless of the casualties. Which means that the G7, EU, and NATO must also decide whether they agree that Putin neither wants to absorb the whole of Ukraine nor expand his imperial claims to the Baltic States or the western Balkans to become a “Russian empire “. Much speaks for it, what speaks against it, and what follows from this? This answer is missing. Still. The world looks to the west. The Ukraine war will decide so much more.