Despite dozens of meetings and dozens of hours of discussion between Michel Barnier, the european side, and David Davis and Dominic Raab on the british side (six meetings since July 19), this is not a negotiation. Why ? Because the Europeans have asked from the outset to the terms of a final agreement that is not debatable.
First : the four freedoms of movement of the Union (persons, goods, services and capital) are inseparable. And two : the EU will treat nationals of the uk as well (or as poorly) that London will deal with the european residents. Tertio : the British must pay, before leaving, that they were committed to fund until then. Finally, and this is the point in the most inextricable, no physical boundary shall be re-established between the two Irelands, under the peace agreement, Belfast, 1998, which is binding, jointly and severally, London and Brussels. It would be necessary to add a final global condition which scours the ears of our neighbours from across the Channel : the British, as soon as they are no longer part of the ” club Europe “, should lose benefits, live less well, and regret their departure… Otherwise, the door of the Union would be wide open for all other members. Question of survival for the EU.
The successive renunciations of May
This rigid frame being placed, the margins of manoeuvre of the “trading” are, in reality, fictitious, regard less of the withdrawal agreement (the” withdrawal agreement “). This is not a coincidence that the european negotiator repeats endlessly the same language elements at each point of press for eighteen months, to such a point that all the journalists could almost recite his speeches to his place, the decimal point around.
there was no surprise, in the case, at least, of the withdrawal agreement. Europe has done little to change its position, and Theresa May, who has tried many things, has always ended up letting go. You can take the subjects one by one : she was mine to reduce the final addition and has finally accepted the “financial regulation” designed by Brussels to the euro (approximately 50 billion euros). It was believed to be able to have a “right of veto” on european guidelines that would be adopted during the transition period (April 2019-December 2020), it has not been successful and has folded. She wanted to ignore the supremacy of the european Court of justice in interpretation of european law and ended by admitting that the british courts must “take into account” judgments of the Court and that they will even be able to ask him questions referred for a preliminary ruling for eight years from the effective withdrawal. Most recently, she has sought to divide the single market by proposing to make the trade of goods a separate market. Finally, the Europeans have rejected his “plan of Chequers” unceremoniously at the last informal meeting in Salzburg.
The incurable pruritus irish
the question Remains irish. The pruritus of the Brexit ! The poison pill that no lawyer british – and it is crazy ! – had seen it coming when David Cameron was subjected to a referendum the maintenance of the United Kingdom in the EU. The conditions used were in agreement that he had ripped off to Europe on February 16, 2016, a few months before the referendum of June. An agreement very generous – for once really negotiated – which provided the British with the means of escape in large part to the social costs of the free movement of workers, may be exempted from pursuing an ” increasingly close relationship with the Union “, and established a system of “red card” to block european legislation undesirable. The Europeans have had the impression of having dropped huge concessions at this time. Which explains why they have had, thereafter, the sense that the referendum from Cameron (which has never believed that he would be disowned) was a form of treason. Suddenly, the 27 will show even more uncompromising today…
Theresa May, who succeeded Cameron, is guilty of a colossal error by the convening of early elections on June 8, 2017. A risky bet… and lost, of which it comes out weakened. Its majority is hanging by a thread, and – worse ! – depends on the 10 members with the DUP (the unionists of Northern Ireland). Therefore, it no longer has the political means to solve the problem of borders in irish, which would be to keep Ulster in the customs Union. The DUP denies totally that Northern Ireland be treated differently from the rest of the United Kingdom, and the tories who would not agree that the EU undermines the integrity of the british territory. Twenty years after the filing of the weapons, the wounds of the war, the irish are not closed and the idea of a shape, even soft, or transient, reunification of Ireland, at least in commercial borders, is intolerable to the DUP. Even Theresa May concéderait this fallback solution, the so-called ” backstop “, it might, in the end, to be rejected in the House of commons who should commit…
May had not the political means of a solution
The terms of this policy equation insoluble are not new. However, the Europeans have continued to “negotiate” with a prime minister weakened, which has not the means to a political agreement on Ireland. Was it in spite of any household May to avoid having, on the other side of the table, the hard brexiters the most forcenés ? Between two evils, choose the lesser, seems to have been the motto of the 27. But, on the eve of a european summit that should make the finding of “substantial progress” to convene a summit concluding on the Brexit, in mid-November, the irish problem is still pending. And just as intractable today than yesterday.
one of The small exit doors that some hope is still in Brussels resides in a tabula rasa of political differences, the british, who would be a part of the labour and tory – the more moderate of the two camps come together to support an agreement that reaches finally to solve the squaring of the circle irish. Chimera ? In the meantime, each of them preparing themselves, in the emergency, and not without apprehension, to the hypothesis of “no deal” (see here the case of France)…
The integrity of customs of the United Kingdom listed in the act
on Tuesday, Theresa May spoke to the Commons to take stock of the situation. She stated that she had made new proposals, after the top of Salzburg, to find a solution to customs in Ireland. His plan, as we know, is to create a customs zone mixed that would include the whole of the Uk, which would obviate the need to create a custom physical between the two Irelands. According to her, the european Union would have welcomed its new proposals ” positively “, but considering that it did ” not have time to address in detail this solution across the Uk in the next few weeks.” Although the EU remains at its initial plan : a backstop (” backstop “), a sort of insurance policy temporary, that would keep Northern Ireland in the customs union until a better agreement can be found. But if this “best agreement” is never found ?… It is the fear of the British, including the ability to conclude new free trade agreements in the world would be amputated of Northern Ireland.
” We have been clear that we cannot accept anything that threatens the integrity of our United Kingdom. And I am sure that the whole House shares the government’s opinion in this matter, ” she concluded. Theresa May is home, the rest, behind a unanimous vote of the Commons (article 55 of the law on the cross-border trade), which established the United Kingdom as a ” single customs territory “. “I need to be able to look the british people in the eye and say that this safety net is a temporary solution. People fear, rightly, that this is supposed to be only temporary may become an empty permanent – no new relationship between the Uk and the EU who have never been agreed. “Back for the umpteenth time at the starting line…