The Germans would have to accept a hard Brexit according to a study, a loss of income of up to ten billion euros a year. Annual per capita gross domestic product would fall to around 115 Euro, a study by the Bertelsmann Foundation showed.
Only the United Kingdom itself, would have, therefore, by a fair EU exit losses are higher than the Federal. The British and the British would lose by a hard Brexit per year 57 billion euros – 900 euros per inhabitant. To Germany (ten billion) on the list of affected people in France (eight billion euros) and Italy (four billion) economies. The United Kingdom borders Ireland would be affected, with a 720-Euro loss per head.
orderly Brexit with a withdrawal agreement would mitigate the negative impact of significantly, the authors write. They had estimated on the Basis of official trade data in two scenarios – Brexit, with or without a contract – income developments, on the basis of expected changes in gross domestic product. As reasons for the expected losses they call duties, the more expensive Goods, but also a decline in competition in Europe, with negative consequences for price and wage development.
United States and China benefit
Almost ten billion euros in absolute loss of income for Germany correspond to the calculations to only about 0.3 percent of gross domestic product, as a co-author Dominic Ponattu said. It was assumed that regional differences in the effects. North Rhine-Westphalia, would be likely to be affected particularly strongly, because the UK games for the NRW-Export a large role. Bayern would lose in the case of the absolute income losses are also quite clear. In addition, the Brexit meet strong regions with a high proportion of small and medium-sized enterprises – for example, the region surrounding Stuttgart and Hamburg and the Rhineland.
In the case of a contractual exit the Simulation looks far less negative impact. For Germany suppose then income losses of around five billion euros. Also for the whole of the EU (excluding the UK) would halve the loss in the approximately – estimated at 22 billion euros.
the extension is requested
Benefit from a hard-Brexit, the United States and China could be expected, with annual billion in income growth, a slight increase in the study for Russia. According to the authors, the U.S. income could rise to 13 billion euros a year. In China, the income would rise to around five billion euros annually, in Russia, one could expect a slight increase of around 260 million euros a year.
a large number of politicians, business representatives and consumer advocates had warned of drastic consequences should it come to a chaotic Brexit. It is planned for the end of March. Since the British Parliament is not the outlet confirmed to the with the EU negotiated the Treaty, had the British Prime Minister, Theresa May, the EU on Wednesday for a delay of up to 30. June asked, without participation in the European elections earlier in may.
