tens of thousands of people take part in marathon races and most of them have a personal best that you want to crack. To stay under four hours, is for many Amateurs is already a success. Who creates a 3:30 is ambitious.

professionals must be for the 42.195 kilometres in significantly less time. The current world record, the Kenyans Eliud Kipchoge holds since the Berlin Marathon in 2018, with a time of 2:01:39.

it Goes even faster?

Is the limit of two hours? An Economist from Monash Business School in Melbourne, Australia wants to answer using the present Marathon data and statistics. He is an optimistic-looking forecast: The probability that a male runner offers this time, spent 50 per cent, writes Simon Angus in the journal “Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise”. As an absolute best time, even a time of one hour, 58 minutes and five seconds with a ten percent Chance possible.

Official world records in men’s Marathon of the year Name time in 2003, Paul Tergat 2:04:55 2008 Haile Gebrselassie 2:03:59 2014 Dennis Kimetto 2:02:57 2018 Eliud Kipchoge 2:01:39

The probability that a runner breaks the Two-hour mark, rising according to his model in the coming years and decades. You spent, for example, in the case of a run in June 2024 at five per cent, in may 2032 at a 10 per cent, and in March 2054, even at 25 percent. Angus’ prediction, therefore, is that in 2032, for the first time an athlete completed a Marathon in less than two hours.

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as is so with probabilities – the event may occur sooner or later.

Undiscovered talents

The probability that a runner creates at some point a Marathon in under two hours, according to Angus, in contrast, only one percent. He assumes that 2:05:31 is the time the women reach a maximum.

The current world record for the women since the year 2003 when Paula Radcliffe ran the London Marathon in 2:15:25. The Australian Economist says, it would make more sense for women as a new big goal to declare to run under 130 minutes.

the record, Radcliffe has gone on for so long, however, for him to think in a different way. Angus suspected, that runner is not to be discovered, particularly on the African continent – sufficient and encouraged. “Probably the world’s life today record-breaking-Marathon-runner in Africa. We just don’t know them.”

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