History 19/02/20 What would have happened to Russia if Lenin had not seized power
no matter How much I spent was at the time of paper “proof” of historical causation, almost the inevitability of the “great October socialist revolution”, but it was impossible to hide the fact that the key point in it was a dual decision of the Central Committee of the Bolshevik party from 10 (23) 16 (29) October about a military coup. This solution could not be. Lenin then met sharp opposition to some of his companions, who believed that the Bolsheviks do not need to oppose itself to the other socialist parties in the Constituent Assembly, the forces of the left should be together.
Collective suicide of the Bolsheviks
the Situation was thus. 12 (25) November 1917 was to be held the elections to the Russian Constituent Assembly. Elections and count their results were run independent from the Provisional government body – the national Commission for the elections to the Constituent Assembly. Although the Bolsheviks and exaggerated fears, if the Interim government does not intend to convene a Constituent Assembly (and the Bolsheviks, they say, will be the guarantors of its convocation), in fact the Interim government was in no position to interfere with the elections to the Constituent Assembly, they were unable to stop it and the Bolsheviks.
Many in the Bolshevik party wanted a quiet life as a legal political opposition. Lenin of April 1917, with his famous “Theses” is constantly overcome this “parliamentary draft” of their comrades. Lenin had to mobilize all his polemical talents and leadership qualities to convince the majority of the members of the Central Committee to follow him, first in the adoption of the slogan “All power to the Soviets!”, then, in the adoption of the course of an armed overthrow of the Provisional government.
the opponents of Lenin in those October days it was like a feeling that will be with them personally, if the Bolsheviks take power. Two consistently voted against a coup – G. E. Zinoviev and L. B. Kamenev – were shot on Stalin’s orders in the same day, August 25, 1936. But supporters of Lenin, it turns out, brought about his own death. V. P. Milyutin was shot in 1937, A. S. Bubnov and G. I. Lomov – in 1938, G. Y. Sokolnikov was killed in prison by Stalin’s order in 1939, and L. D. Trotsky also on Stalin’s orders, but in Mexico in 1940.
M. S. Uritsky was killed in the assassination attempt of August 30, 1918. He held the position of Chairman of the Petrograd Cheka, and, of course, was under attack from opponents of the Bolsheviks. There would be no October revolution, would not have arisen and the Cheka, Uritsky, and would have lived longer. Clearly brought about his own death work exhausting posts Ya. M. Sverdlov (the Chairman of the Central Executive Committee, died in January 1919) and F. E. Dzerzhinsky (Chairman of the Cheka, 1926). And Lenin himself, did not take the power he would have spent less energy, and would not have been injured as a result of the assassination, clearly korotysheva his days. Except Stalin of the Central Committee of the Bolsheviks, only Kollontai tried to survive the revolution and during the Great terror. Orgy of self-destruction: that was an activity of the Bolsheviks in the result of the victory in October 1917.
If the Bolsheviks had consistently stood for an Alliance with other leftist forces, they would enter the Constituent Assembly would become in this and in the next Russian Parliament, a strong left opposition. And almost all of these figures would probably have lived a longer life.
there would be civil and Second world wars.
What you would expect for Russia in the event of failure of the Bolsheviks from seizing power in late 1917? First of all, perhaps, there would be civil war. She broke out only in response to the establishment of the dictatorship of the Bolsheviks and their socialist experiment. Hardly to be expected establish some contravolutional, right, a military dictatorship – such an attempt has already failed in August 1917. But, in the end, no right dictatorship would not be able to strike Russia so much harm, how many caused the dictatorship of the Bolsheviks. In addition, as shown by the world experience in the twentieth century, the dictatorship of right-wing forces was short, and the longest was just after the dictatorship of the Communists in the Soviet Union.
of Course, the political system in Russia would long remain unstable, and hardly a parliamentary democracy would be confirmed in her first attempt. Inevitably there have been major social conflicts. Perhaps Russia would not be a site. But how, one way or another, Russia has not lost at the end of the twentieth century? The process of political transformation of the space of the former Russian Empire lasted for several decades, but the country managed to avoid two devastating crises – the civil war and the beginning of the 1990s years.
Obviously, in Europe 1920-1930s there would be fewer prerequisites for the establishment of fascist dictatorships. Because they, like the White movement in Russia, too, arose as a reaction to the radical, Pro-Soviet movement in their countries. There would be Soviet power in Russia – European Communists would not have had before him the example to follow – there would be a strong left movement in Europe – there would be opposing his far-right movement. Therefore, the probability of occurrence of the Second world war would be much lower.
But in foreign policy, Russia would be unable to compete with the victory in the First world war by the Entente powers. Indeed, by the autumn of 1917 the Russian army was already badly demoralized, is actually ruined. The most that she could in this situation – to survive until the victory of the Western powers over Germany. After the February revolution, Russia could not expect to get hold of Constantinople and of other territorial acquisitions. A chance remained only under the tsarist regime and strong army. But has not concluded the Brest world, Russia wouldn’t be in international isolation, and could also count on receiving reparations from defeated Germany.
Forever remain a mystery what actually motivated Zinoviev and Kamenev, who opposed the uprising. However, if they at some point foresaw their fate, is another mystery – why in those fateful days of October 1917 it appeared only the two of them from the entire leadership of the Bolsheviks.
© Russian Seven
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