For the second Time in this decade will not be enough the world’s grain harvest, to cover the needs of the world’s population. The UN food and agriculture organization (FAO) in Rome and the International grains Council (IGC) forecasts in London. In the agricultural year of 2018/19 to be consumed, therefore, almost 30 million tonnes more than is harvested, estimates the FAO in its latest forecast. The expected total harvest around the globe, the UN-employees amount to almost 2.66 billion tonnes.

One cause of the current decline, the drought of the past year is in large Parts of Europe, the loss of the wheat harvest in the EU and Russia.

The consequences of the scarce wheat are being felt in Europe: producer prices for food – the prices that manufacturers demand increased, according to the Federal Association of the German food industry (BVE) in January and February compared to the previous year. However, in the case of bread and cereals producer prices rose products in Germany to 6.3 percent, as the Association announced on request. As early as 2018, there were, on average, in the case of bread and cereal products, larger price increases than other foods.

wheat is mainly intended for human consumption, while the greater part of the corn harvest for the production of feed for cattle, pigs and other farm animals is used.

Europe’s largest trader of agricultural, the Munich-based Baywa is raw materials. The Chairman of the Board, Klaus-Josef Lutz believed that climate change became noticeable. In 2018, the European cereal harvest, drought, the result was six percent lower than in the previous year. “2018 was not the outlier,” said Lutz recently. “This is the third and the fourth year in a row that the climatic vagaries of the business.”

The world’s granaries are still good

A decline in the grain harvest does not mean that famines threaten: The warehouses and storage around the globe are well filled. In previous years, the grain production was increased sharply. In the case of this development is the growing global appetite plays according to the assessment of the Baywa meat an important role. “The truth is simple: people want to eat more meat, so we need cereal,” said CEO Lutz. “We see that we have on the one hand, a decline in production, and on the other hand, a higher consumption.”

In fact: “We have, in the past ten years, a fairly strong increase in global maize production,” said FAO Economist Abdolreza Abbassian in Rome. He cites two reasons: “In the USA, the cultivation of Maize has been extended for the production of biofuels.” And on the other side of the Pacific, the Chinese are eating more meat.

The expansion of corn production has to Abbassians words, but no significant effect on the wheat cultivation and the production of food. “Corn and wheat grow in different places and at different times,” said the FAO expert.

The International grains Council in London expects that global inventories are shrinking, both in this and in the next year. The London experts predict a 2018/19 a somewhat greater shrinkage of the stocks of 44 million tonnes, for 2019/20 you expect a further decrease of 28 million tons. The last global grain deficit there was in the agricultural year 2012/13, as the U.S. Farmer suffered the consequences of a multi-year drought.