The Ukrainian resistance is surprising: What role do Western arms deliveries and Russia’s losses play?

The developments on the Russian-Ukrainian front seem surprising. Russia’s expected breakthrough has not materialized and Ukraine appears to be managing to halt the advance. According to military economist Dr. Marcus Keupp could have contributed to this due to Western arms deliveries and massive losses on the Russian side, reports “ZDF today”.

Keupp made it clear live on ZDF today that Ukraine would probably not rely on the most modern weapons. There would rather be “simply more of what is needed”. However, he pointed to the use of the ATACMS weapon systems in Crimea, which have not yet been used on Russian territory. “It’s changing a bit at the moment,” ZDF quoted the expert as saying today.

According to Keupp, a renewed offensive by the Ukrainian army is currently not viable due to Russia’s air superiority and superiority in weapon systems on the entire front. “To do this, Ukraine would first have to gather forces that it simply does not have at the moment,” he noted. 

A significant factor in the current course of the war is the enormous losses of the Russian military. ZDF today quoted Keupp as saying: “This is the greatest loss that a mechanized land army has ever suffered since the Second World War.” In addition to material losses, there were also major personnel losses, which not only affected newly hired recruits with minimal would restrict training. The military economist’s conclusion is sobering: the rate of attrition of the Russian military exceeds its reserves. According to ZDF, Keupp is of the opinion that “the stocks and new production, depending on the expert, could keep the fight going until “mid-2025 and early 2026”.

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