The economy in Germany will grow in the current year, according to estimates by the International monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to be only 0.8 percent. In the coming year, it’s supposed to go but up, and with 1.4 percent growth almost back to the pace of the year in 2018 (1.5 percent) can be achieved. “The decline in Germany has to do with the automotive sector,” said the chief economist of the IMF, Gita Gopinath, and referred to the problems with the new fuel consumption and emission measurement standard WLTP.
around the World, the economy will be growth in the current year, only 3.3 percent, after 3.6 percent in the previous year, said the IMF. This is the slowest growth since 2009, when the economy contracted as a result of the financial crisis. In the next year, growth should resume, however, the pace of 2018, said Gopinath. It was but not sure.
depends on Whether the received forecasts, including developments in countries such as Argentina and Turkey. And the question of whether the trade dispute between China and the United States, be solved for the two largest economies in the world, finally. “We very much hope that it will come to an agreement soon,” said Gopinath. The trade war have about the pressure on the prices for the ground also have an impact on developing countries of the treasures, for the oil-rich Nigeria.
Weaker growth in the U.S.
Fortunately, the inflationary pressure is not too large, said Gopinath. So the Central banks could ease monetary policy if necessary, in the case of large Central banks have already done, for example, in the United States, Japan, and England.
The IMF had to take back its already in the January downward revision of the forecast once again. Part of the problem lies in the United States. There, the stimuli are according to the IMF fizzles effects of the tax reform of President Donald Trump already.
The largest economy in the world will grow to 2019 by 2.3 percent, in an election year, 2020 is only 1.9 percent – a far cry from the forecasts of Trumps, had made a growth of more than four percent. Even China, with the United States on an intense trade dispute is involved, is weakened. Of 6.6 percent in 2018, it goes back to 6.3 per cent in the current year and 6.1 percent next year.
The fear of a disorderly Brexit contribute to the problem significantly. By 2021, the UK would lose a scenario of the IMF to 3.5 per cent of its economic output, the loss for the EU would be 0.5 percent. “The Situation is in movement, predictions are very difficult,” said Gopinath.