black work for many people due to high job opportunities and good earning potential will be less attractive. This is the result of an analysis of the tübingen Institute for Applied economic research (IAW) and the University of Linz, the German press Agency reported. “For a tiler, it is so fun to work on Friday evening or Saturday, if he can earn enough money,” said Co-author Friedrich Schneider of the University of Linz.
the forecast of The researcher according to the scope of the so-called shadow economy is decreasing in Germany this year, to 319 billion euros. The are six billion euros less, as the researchers have calculated for 2018. The share of the shadow economy on the economic performance is the information provided to 9.1 percent. This is the lowest value since the beginning of the investigation in the mid-nineties. Germany in an international comparison in the midfield. The best of Austria, Switzerland and the United States there are according to the researchers.
In their estimates, the researchers relied on economic development. Another indicator of cash reserves and unemployment rate. The experts for the current year of a further decline in unemployment. The halving of the minimum contribution to the statutory health insurance for Small self-employed contribute according to their calculation, in addition to approximately 1.4 billion Euro in value added from the underground economy to be transferred into the official economy.
Figures on undeclared work are based partly on estimates
About the shadow economy of course there is no reliable, statistical data. The German Federal Statistical office, while black work in the official calculation of gross domestic product (GDP). This is also, in part, estimates, explicitly, the Figures are not shown.
The estimates are based, in part, by surveys. The Institute of German economy (IW) was calculated at the beginning of the year, based on a survey of companies by black work resulting to loss of revenue in Germany is around 300 billion euros. Other calculations of the IW suggests that, in spite of a decline in informal work is widespread: you will come to the conclusion that about 88 percent of the households in Germany have not filed your financial aid.
“It would be presumptuous, a landing point to predict,” said Co-author Schneider, and acknowledges that the forecast may also contain errors. With the assumptions for 2018, the researchers have located, for example, is largely correct.
The latest forecast was especially difficult because in the trade policy of US President Donald Trump or a possible Brexit, many of the uncertainties of the fittings. In the coming years, which could put downward continue the trend of undeclared work, said Friedrich. A prerequisite for a continued positive economic development. A significant effect of the abolition of the solidarity contribution. The Minister of social Affairs and Hubertus Heil (SPD) in placed of the basic pension for low earners could have a positive impact.
