Leaving the EU would cost Germany 690 billion euros in five years. The result would be a serious economic crisis.
The current study by the German Economic Institute (IW) can be understood as a clear warning to the AfD: “A possible exit of Germany from the EU would be associated with a loss of an estimated 5.6 percent of real gross domestic product after just five years and the loss of around 2.5 million jobs in the fifth year,” concludes Hubertus Bardt, economic director and head of research at the German Economic Institute, from the results.
This would mean that the cumulative losses in economic output in Germany would be similar to those during the combined corona and energy cost crisis in the years from 2020 to 2023, calculates Barth and his team. After just five years, the costs would have totaled 690 billion euros. A severe economic crisis would be the result.
Brexit must not be a model for Germany, the economists conclude from their analysis. Great Britain is seen as a cautionary tale. Although many scientists assume that the full effects of Great Britain’s exit from the EU at the end of January 2020 will not be felt for up to 15 years, it is undisputed that the costs are high.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research estimates the negative effect to be five to six percent of real gross value added by 2035.
The welfare losses resulting from the high costs are probably the reason why there have been no further attempts to leave the EU. The AfD is the only party in Germany to maintain its call for a new founding of the European Union and the economic and monetary area in its programme for the 2024 European elections.