At the latest with Russia’s attack on Ukraine, not only did a new Cold War break out worldwide, but also the great wooing and wooing for those central powers that are so influential that it would be good to know that they were in their own camp. There are four states whose favor is to be won in the conflict over spheres of influence: India, Turkey, South Africa and Brazil.
Russia and China on the one hand and the West on the other are currently doing a lot to bind the four to themselves. These, in turn, have understood that their chance lies in both-and. They cunningly play the procrastinators who do not commit themselves to anything and do not enter into any binding commitments, but give their respective dialogue partners from East and West the hint that, as “honest brokers”, they at least understand the position presented and sometimes also support it. The benefit of this targeted on the one hand and on the other hand is tangible: India, Turkey, South Africa and Brazil are gaining new weight in world politics.
In addition, they enjoy benefits of which they could only have dreamed of on this scale before the new Cold War: from cheap Russian oil (India) to Russian and American weapons (Turkey, South Africa) to tempting trade and cooperation offers like you recently received by Brazil from Germany and other Europeans.
In addition, every Western head of government who courts the four now willingly closes his eyes when it comes to the dark side of the person he is talking to, whether it be India’s Narendra Modi or Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa or Brazil’s President Lula because Silva owns.
Lula is currently popular with Germans for geostrategic reasons. For months, the top politicians in Brasilia have been shaking hands: first the Federal President, then the Chancellor, now Economics Minister Robert Habeck and Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir.
Nothing can be said against the trips, especially since Germany is also benefiting from the cooperation. There’s just one illusion you shouldn’t have: neither Brazil nor the other countries will allow themselves to be drawn into their own camp. Living in the intersection of world politics is too good for that.