Contents page 1 — “You can talk about the downturn also bring” page 2 — Concerns about an Erosion of the political system in Europe, On a page
Donough Kilmurray, head of Goldman Sachs, the Department of investment strategy in London read. He is responsible for the investment counseling for private clients in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, and Asia.
TIME ONLINE: almost all of the major industrial Nations, is the fear of a downturn in the economy, even in Germany. What can I do as a private investor in such a situation?
Donough Kilmurray: Just as a private investor it is very difficult to predict when a downturn comes. Also if it is important to the economic development, one should not make investment decisions solely depend on it. We also believe that now is a Phase of recession begins, but the global growth is likely to go back. This is reflected in our return expectations. But it would be premature, now, from shares to get out. We recommend to private investors to diversify their Portfolios and to invest in high-quality bonds. Then a Portfolio can withstand large fluctuations. For a recession, the typical signs are missing.
TIME ONLINE: Why we have already seen some of the harbingers of it?
Kilmurray: at the end of last year, many investors were unsettled because the US Federal Reserve had raised interest rates for the fourth Time in 2018, and the yields on US government bonds rose sharply. These may be signs of Overheating in the economy and the way it was interpreted. In our view, the Concerns were exaggerated. We take as an example the employment situation in Europe and the USA. Which is very good, but the Inflation has not yet risen sharply, which would be a sign that the economic cycle reached its end.
TIME ONLINE: unemployment is low, the demand for labour increases. Thus, Employees had the opportunity to ask for a raise. Why rising Inflation is still only slowly?
Kilmurray: As the unemployment rate was last in the USA in the nineties and before that in the late sixties under four percent, increased the salaries in the country and therefore Inflation. This connection no longer exists directly. The labour market has become much more flexible. Especially in the so-called platform economy, the workers have it hard, higher wages.
TIME ONLINE: A downturn is not but can also lead to other factors, which you can see.
Kilmurray: of Course, an exogenous shock may lead to a recession. That was the case, for example, as the price of Oil rose in the seventies, very quickly. At the Moment, but we have a Glut of Oil on the world market. Political risks, such as the trade tensions between the United States and China, the situation in North Korea or the Middle East could intensify. But here are a few specific hazards, which would, in the short or medium term, trigger a recession.
TIME ONLINE: Others fear the still high levels of debt, for example, in the United States.
Kilmurray: That’s true. Also great imbalances in the economy or in the financial markets have in the past led to a recession. But even if at the present time, more debt in the economy than it was even ten years ago, this is not as strong among consumers and the company accrued, but especially in countries such as China and Japan. In the US, the debt decreased in private households, the company’s liabilities are approximately at the same level as before the crisis. The state debt have risen. However, if a government in the world comes with a higher stock of public debt, then the United States.
TIME ONLINE: wait a minute, just when it comes to the US leadership and President Donald Trump, many people loose the trust. The government is also looking for outright conflict with the private institutions and abroad.
Kilmurray: In the markets, there is concern in the fact that the White house could exert a lot of pressure on the monetary policy of the US Central Bank. After all, she is the most influential Central Bank in the world. A look back at U.S. history shows, however, that presidents have tried before Donald Trump about Truman, Nixon, and Reagan, to influence the Fed. All of them had only moderate success. Also, the fact that a US President new Trade imposes a duty, is not uncommon. The other of US have done-governments previously as well.