Global gasoline demand could collapse this year as electric cars become more popular in China and the United States.
According to analyzes available to Reuters, growth in global gasoline demand could halve in 2024. This forecast is based on increasing adoption of electric vehicles in China and the US, as well as a return to normal consumption following last year’s recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Demand, which was at its lowest in 2020, is expected to rise by 340,000 barrels per day, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie. According to the analysis, it could be 26.5 million barrels per day this year. This would be a decline from last year’s growth of 700,000 barrels per day. China is nearing peak gasoline demand and the U.S. has already passed it, the report said.
“Electric vehicle penetration has increased in the US and China,” said Woodmac analyst Sushant Gupta. “For this year, Chinese gasoline demand will only grow by 10,000 barrels per day due to higher EV penetration.”
The International Energy Agency expects more than half of all electric cars sold worldwide to be purchased in China this year. The research arm of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) forecasts that gasoline consumption by the world’s largest crude oil importer will rise by about 1.3 percent, or about 2 million tons, to 165.1 million tons (3.8 million barrels per day) this year.
The IEA estimates that the share of electric cars sold this year could reach 45 percent in China, around 25 percent in Europe and more than 11 percent in the United States. In contrast, booming auto sales, high economic growth rates and low EV penetration are driving gasoline demand in India and Indonesia.
U.S. gasoline demand fell to about 376 million gallons per day in 2023, after reaching a record 392 million gallons in 2018, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Analysts expect stable demand for 2024.
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