The global economy is losing momentum, the industry is less well – in this country for more Economists to expect less growth. The ifo Institute for economic research, a halving of its forecast. Accordingly, the Economists expect for the current year with a growth of 0.6 percent previously, the researchers were anticipating an increase of 1.1 percent. Also, the German Institute for economic research (DIW) in Berlin lowers its forecasts, expects as the Federal government – with a growth rate of 1.0 percent.
“The industry will be in 2019 as the economic engine largely,” says Ifo chief Timo Wollmershäuser. The global demand for German products is weak because the global economic momentum to lose. To fell the beginning of the year of production and orders, exports stagnated.
This is demonstrated by a recent survey conducted by the DIHK, according to which only 15 per cent of internationally active firms expect better business abroad. This is the lowest value since the financial crisis. 15 percent even fear a deterioration of their international business.
most Recently the Organisation for economic co-operation and development (OECD) reduced its forecast for German growth in 2019 from 1.6 to 0.7 per cent – would be only half as much as last year.
of the domestic economy remains stable
According to the ifo experts, the slowdown is only temporary. For 2020, they increased the Economists forecast of 1.6 percent to 1.8 percent. It is expected that the current production difficulties of the German industry could soon be overcome. In addition, there is a strong domestic economy.
play the good collective agreements with wage increases and low inflation rate has a role. At the same time, the ifo expects more workers to the labour market. Today, there are 45.2 million employed people in Germany, nearly 300,000 more are likely to come in the coming year, because the demand for labour remains high. Accordingly, the unemployment rate would fall from 4.9 percent to 4.7 percent. That would be 2.12 million people. At the same time, due to the deterioration in the economy, the decline in unemployment is slowing down.
the DIW believes that the economic slowdown will only be short-lived: The Berlin Economists expect the gross domestic product in 2020 will increase by 1.8 percent. The Germans were more strong money, said the head of DIW Claus Michelsen. To the other of the boom stop. The experts also assume that the Export will pick up again, such as when economic stimulus packages in China. A possible disorderly Britain to leave the EU will not bring so great a turmoil as expected a year ago, said Michelsen. He referred to the good Preparedness of the companies and on the British Considerations, not to raise, temporarily, the duties do not.