The corrections act dramatically, To only a half percent, the economy will grow, according to the Federal government this year. This is evident from the latest government forecast, the economy wants to introduce Minister, Peter Altmaier, on the next Wednesday in the Cabinet. Reminder: a few months Ago there was in Berlin a growth rate of 1.8 per cent is assumed. In the Rest of the world, it does not look better. The International monetary Fund has taken the growth forecast for the world economy. It is expected to grow by only 3.3 instead of, as previously assumed, by 3.7 percent.
so he Comes in now, in the downturn?
If you are busy with the Numbers a little more closely, a more differentiated picture arises. In Germany, for example, the Revision of the forecast is mainly due to the poor economic development in the second half of last year, as a conversion of the exhaust-gas measurement in the automotive industry, as well as the drought, production in the industry affected and the interest of the American Federal Reserve Bank, increases unsettled the markets.
you have to know that, according to the usual statistical conventions purely in numerical terms, a weaker growth in the previous year, the growth in the current year is reduced because of the economy starts, in a sense, starting from a much lower base. If you will, reflect the Figures of the problems of the past. You sign in the economy-scale dynamics.
Also in the downward revision in forecasts is, in fact, so far under that the economy recovers in the second half of the year to travel. If you look at only the rate of growth for this year, and the year-on-hides, according to estimates by the International monetary Fund an increase of the German gross domestic product to 1.4 percent.
uncertainty factor Donald Trump
This is not intoxicating, but also not so bad – and not everything is bad. The construction industry in Germany is booming, the wages and salaries are rising, the coalition agreed to additional government spending, such as higher child benefits, and more investment, support the economy. If you will, the government is already a small stimulus package, the rate, according to estimates by the Bundesbank, the German growth this year by up to half a percentage point.
Now, of course, no one can say what the future will bring: Maybe Donald freaking Trump and the trade war escalates. Maybe not, it is possible to find on the subject of Brexit still an amicable settlement. Maybe the financial markets due to the high levels of debt in countries such as Italy crazy. Then you could actually threaten a global slowdown, even Germany can not escape.
But, conversely, this means that If these risks do not materialize, then the Outlook is not as bad as it lay close to the low official growth. Then will the economy recover after a deep. Then, reason to hope that a rise in unemployment can be prevented, and also the state’s tax receipts continue to develop well – though perhaps not quite as good as in the past.
One should not write off the now already for more than ten years, the sustained upswing in Germany so hasty.