Contents page 1 — “out-migration can not be prevented” page 2 — “A meaningful project to be the company itself? Finance” page 3 — “The people Concerned should be able to choose between options” On a page
In the next few days, the coal Commission will announce their recommendations: when Germany should get out of the coal-fired power generation And how the state can help the Thousands of people who become unemployed? The Economist Oliver repeated möller Leibniz Institute for economic research Halle, research. He says: The government should pay the workers better severance pay, to subsidize, rather than in the hope that new jobs the company.
Zeit ONLINE: Mr repeated möller, you have examined, what will be the impact of the planned exit strategy from Coal to the affected regions of Lusatia, Central Germany and the Rhineland. What is the result?
Oliver möller Repeated: Our study is a step coal-phasing up to the year 2035. We have mostly looked at employment, wages and migration. In a nutshell: For Germany overall, the economic impacts are manageable, for the affected regions, however, severe.
TIME ONLINE: to what Extent?
repeated möller: by 2030 could be lost in the affected regions, up to 15,000 jobs to be eliminated in addition to those by already existing processes, such as migration or demography. Among other things, by higher electricity prices after the carbon far more 20,000 to 25,000 Jobs will exit according to our model Germany be eliminated. In absolute Numbers, the Rhineland is the most affected, because there are significantly more people working in the brown coal industry than in the two other brown coal regions. In relative terms, the Lausitz is the most affected, because of the brown coal sector has the greatest importance. We assume, however, that after the completion of the adjustment processes, the unemployment rate in the long term back to the previous level.
Oliver took möller
is the Vice-President and head of the Department of macro-Economics at the Leibniz-Institute for economic research in Halle.
TIME ONLINE: Why is that?
repeated möller: Because of the lack of employment opportunities in the Region lead to outflow. Some who lose their jobs, move away from the affected regions, which has been seen in other cases. The employees in the lignite sector have mainly occupations that are also in demand elsewhere, be it in the technical or commercial area. In addition, the wages in this industry are almost twice as high as the German average. It is unlikely that these people find in their Region of a similar, well-paid work. The younger of them will commute or move – in regions where the labour force are scarce. Our model has shown that from the Lausitz 2,500 people could migrate.
TIME ONLINE: 44 million workers in the whole of Germany that doesn’t sound like much. Why should be interested in the Rest of the country?
repeated möller: The Federal government has the objective to protect the climate. This is with a Coal phase-out in the order of magnitude is possible as with any other measure. This political decision, however, the people who work in the brown coal industry, a major challenge. In a social market economy, these people should not be left alone. So the willingness is maintained, to accept change, it will also be the losers of these processes taken. Otherwise, these people feel left behind and could join partially populist currents.
coal Commission – what’s next for coal? On Friday, the experts will publish its final report on the future of the coal industry in Germany. © Photo: PATRIK STOLLARZ/AFP/
