A breakthrough in the Brexit negotiations? Then it looks at least. The EU and the UK have agreed on a draft Treaty. In most points there was already consensus. But controversial is the question of the Irish was to the last frontier: How can the UK leave the EU – and thus also from the internal market and the customs Union, if at the same time the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland to stay? What is happening with the border, when the UK and the EU can not agree on a free trade agreement?
Apparently, this question is clarified now. Now, the fierce struggle begins, a majority in the British Parliament. How good are the chances of the Prime Minister Theresa May, that the Parliament supports their agreement? What are the hard Brexiteers say? The most important answers to the state-of-the Brexit negotiations.
All questions at a Glance: How the compromise on the Irish border? What the British Cabinet says? What is the Irish DUP says? How is Labour to the compromise? What are the hard Brexiteers say? How the EU responded to the compromise?
What says the British press? What is the schedule for the coming weeks? What is the compromise on the Irish border?
Should some of the EU and the UK in the transitional period up to December 2020 on a joint free-trade agreement, will the UK remain in the EU customs Union. As a result, customs controls, especially the green Irish border are to be avoided. This so-called Backstop should apply for an indefinite period. The compromise provides that it can only be from the UK and the EU, together ended. The UK insisted to the state as a “vassal state of the EU” (Boris Johnson) to independently exit the EU de facto has a veto right.
For the British, this could be a major Problem: Because the UK is allowed to conclude their own free trade agreements with third countries, as long as it is a member of the customs Union. In addition, the UK must comply with the strict EU environmental requirements, the EU health and safety regulations, tax regulations, and the rules for prohibited state aid. In addition, disputes over the European court of justice are regulated. This is criticized by many British parliamentarians sharp.
in Order to avoid controls at the Irish border, to Northern Ireland to be in the movement of goods in the single market involved. Specifically, this means: The Northern Irish province to comply with all relevant EU directives and product rules which apply for the transport of goods. Northern Ireland is treated differently than the “mainland” UK.
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What is the British Cabinet says?
It looks so far as if May gets the back of your own Cabinet. May informed the Ministers on Tuesday evening in a single talks about the draft Treaty. They led the first talks with the Ministers, the Treaty most critical. Although some do not have spoken after that, critical, and stepped back. To moves if it rode on the Cabinet session on Wednesday afternoon is open, but the likelihood of this is decreased. Problematic for May the items of work are Mordaunt Minister Esther McVey and Minister for development Penny. Their resignation could cope with May but. For comparison: the noisy retreat of the former foreign Minister, Boris Johnson and the Brexit Minister David Davis has survived relatively unscathed.
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What is the Irish DUP says?
The Northern Irish DUP, whose support May in the Parliament so far had to rely, has already expressed a view opposed. This is understandable, since the temporary solution to the Irish border contains exactly the compromise that the Northern Irishman so far vehemently rejected. May set in relation to the EU that in case of emergency, the whole of the UK remains in the EU customs Union.
But in terms of the internal market, only Northern Ireland will have to comply with EU regulations relating to the transport of goods and agricultural legislation. This is treated, contrary to the warning of the DUP, Northern Ireland, but unlike the Rest of the UK. Controls on goods in the ports and on the ships in the trade between the “mainland” of great Britain and Ireland will have to take place, even if largely by British officials. Nevertheless, Strictly speaking, the compromise splits the United Kingdom. It is to be expected, therefore, that the ten members of the DUP votes in Parliament against May.
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Labour is the compromise?
labor has six conditions that must be met by a Brexit Treaty: the United Kingdom should enjoy the same advantages as in the past, the EU rules will not run under a sustainable partnership with the EU to comply with, in terms of safety, closely with the EU, immigration, fair rules and the Brexit should be for all regions of the country. This is all very vague. With the compromise reached between the EU and London can, however, be some points regarded as fulfilled.
Also: the leader of the opposition Jeremy Corbyn has always demanded that the UK should remain after a Brexit in the customs Union. Only Labour could agree to the discharge of the contract. This is also the case. Labour had also insisted that the UK complies with the EU regulations to the labour market, the occupational safety and health, as well as the protection of the environment. This, too, is satisfied with the present compromise. Thus, there is actually no serious reason for Labour in Parliament to vote against the compromise. Corbyn insists so far, but to continue to vote in Parliament against it. A number of Labour MPs have already indicated, to vote for the compromise.
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What is the hard Brexiteers say?
The opponents of Theresa May in her own party were the First to be made on Tuesday evening against the compromise mood – even before they had read the draft contract at all. Boris Johnson, the former foreign Minister, railed that the Status of “vassal state” was unacceptable: For 1,000 years it had been not a Situation, in dhe had been in the UK so dependent on the Outside. He’s going to vote against the Treaty.
The notorious critics of the EU Jacob Rees-said Mogg, the contract was what I promised Theresa May, he also will vote against him. He acknowledged, however, have so far done nothing, to a no-confidence vote against Theresa May prepare. So Rees had threatened-Moog in the past few months.
from today’s vantage point, there are too many hardliners, which May could be your voice in Parliament. In order to secure a majority for the compromise, and not to be completely on the votes of Labour dependent, you still need to change the minds of some critics.
According to the Financial times, it lacked seven votes in the Parliament, even if the ten members of the DUP would support it.
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How the EU is responding to the compromise?
For the EU compromise politically is not so controversial as for the UK. Brussels holds back accordingly. However, A strategic error, Sabine Weyand, and Deputy negotiator on the part of the EU allowed. She stressed in a known Memo to the 27 EU ambassadors that the controversial compromise will be the blueprint for a future free trade agreement between the UK and the EU. The membership in the customs Union and the acceptance of numerous EU requirements were the Basis for the future negotiations. In order for the EU hold all the cards in the Hand.
This is exactly what reject many parliamentarians in the UK, namely the idea that to be now but in the long term, the EU is bound to have without the possibility of free trade agreements with third countries to negotiate. Worse still, Weyand said pointedly relieved by the strong negotiating position of the EU and the weak Position of the British – exactly the opposite of what it wants to hear, the British government now.
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What says the British press?
Here’s the Surprise: The otherwise so hostile to Europe British tabloid press is suddenly behind Theresa May. Only exception: the Sun of Rupert Murdoch. Why the turnaround? Since the referendum in the year 2016, the editors-in-chief of two major tabloid Newspapers have changed. The formerly extremely Euro-sceptic Daily Express is now led by Gary Jones, and the headline on Wednesday morning: “This-Brexit Deal is the Best for the UK.” The tabloid Daily Mail wrote: “Finally, a Deal! Give him a Chance!” Even the Daily Telegraph, who leads the campaign by Boris Johnson against Theresa May, held back with criticism.
The change of mood is for the government is crucial. Unlike the earlier Prime Minister David Cameron, the not arrived against Europe-baiting of the British tabloid press can help the back cover of the press May now be crucial to sell the contract in the Public and in Parliament as a success.
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the time is How to plan for the coming weeks?
as soon As the Cabinet accepted the draft Treaty on Wednesday, signaling the British government to the EU that the British side a special EU summit on 25. November, nothing stands in the way. At this summit, the EU should ratify the draft Treaty, first officially. This would allow Theresa May is enough time for the contract at the beginning of December to the British Parliament. The Parliament should agree to the contract, this would be in time for the regular meeting of the EU Council on 13. and 14. December. Also, the European Parliament could vote on it before the March on the compromise. Ratification in all member States, however, is not required.
the end of March 2019 would leave the UK, then in an orderly way, the EU, and in a nearly two-year transition period to occur, in which practically nothing changes. During this transition period, a free trade agreement would have to be negotiated. However, it is unlikely that this is possible in this short time. The agreement on a agreement usually takes many years, in the case of Canada and the EU for seven years. The UK and the EU do not succeed, it occurs in 2021, the emergency in force, the so-called “backstop”. Britain would then continue to remain in the EU customs Union, but not in the single market. Only Northern Ireland would be integrated into the internal market for Goods. This condition would be checked from both sides, but can only be terminated by both sides, the EU and the UK together. This is likely to be the case, if a free trade agreement has been negotiated.
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