Contents page 1 — “If no one dodges, are both dead,” page 2 — “Some in Mini want it comes to collision” On a page
in Brussels on Thursday. After your Parliament has rejected the Brexit-the exit contract, wants you to trade again with the EU post. These Changes excluded the contract several times.
time is of The essence: In less than eight weeks, the UK leaves the EU. A hard Brexit, with unpredictable consequences with each passing day more likely. Nevertheless, both negotiating partners do not seem ready to make further compromises. Why the actors behave so stubborn and what this can lead to, can game theory explain. The sociologist Andreas Diekmann is the scenario with us.
TIME ONLINE: Mr. Diekmann, can help us to the game theory, to understand the deadlock between the EU and the UK?
Andreas Diekmann: We can think of the EU and the UK as two cars racing each other. The impending collision of the hard Brexit. None of us wants, but just as no one wants to yield and to Dodge. Instead, it is hoped that the other recognizes the determination of his opponent, and dodging. In game theory, this model Chicken Game says: in a way, is the chicken, so the coward – in actual life, but rather of the Reasonable. Because if no one dodges, are both dead. The Cuban missile crisis is an example from the political history, also with the Chicken Game well illustrate.
teaches at the Swiss Federal Institute of technology Zurich. He has written an introduction to game theory, published by Rowohlt.
TIME ONLINE: The EU is economically much stronger, you would not hit a hard Brexit as hard as the UK.
Diekmann: that’s Right. Therefore it is necessary to Refine the model: The EU drives a Limousine, the UK is a Mini. The collision would be for the Kingdom, so much more painful. You can see in the previous negotiations with the EU, which is used to exploit this Position of strength and hardly gives in to.
TIME ONLINE: Can you see the EU and the UK, as a people? Between the Prime Minister Theresa May and the British Parliament, there are large differences. Also, the EU States to speak rarely with one voice.
Diekmann: Yes, in two cars, several players will be sitting. The EU, however amazing agree. Even the usual rebels, such as Poland, Italy and Hungary. The EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, has the steering Wheel so firmly in the Hand. However, not all are in the sedan safely to the other side. This is particularly true for Ireland, which is practically the passenger. It would hit in a collision is difficult, because it would be a hard Brexit controls on the border to Northern Ireland, which could endanger the peace there. The danger, however, even if the EU weakens the Backstop arrangements. Therefore, Ireland is to avoid, on the one hand, that the EU gives in, but on the other hand the collision.
TIME ONLINE: And who sits in the British Mini at the wheel?
Diekmann: you don’t know. There are several actors fighting over the direction in which the car is to drive. Who wins out in the end, is completely unclear.