“Hustlers versus Dynasties”, thugs versus royalty, was Ruto’s slogan for his election campaign. The 55-year-old son from a poor family sees himself in opposition to the Kenyan establishment: the country’s two most prominent political families, the Kenyattas and the Odingas. Since Kenya’s independence in 1963, the two dynasties – one from the Kikuyu people, the other from the Luo people – have been hostile to each other. Now Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila Odinga appear as allies for the first time. The united establishment against the common people: at least that’s how Ruto puts it.
This comparison is new in Kenya. The social class – poor or rich – has not been the focus of elections in the state with its 58 million inhabitants. Rather, it was about ethnic identities: Luos choose an Odinga, Kikuyus a Kenyatta – the members of the other 120 or so ethnic groups in Kenya join one of the two blocks. This regularly led to clashes during elections: after the ballot 15 years ago, more than 1,200 people died and half a million lost their homes in unrest between Luo and Kalenjin on the one hand and Kikuyu on the other.
The fact that ethnicity no longer plays the main role in Kenyan politics is thanks to the politicians themselves: they were so arbitrary with the “identity” of their voters that they ultimately reduced it to absurdity. Kalenjin Ruto once fought as an ally of the Luo Odinga against the Kikuyu Mwai Kibaki. Five years later, Ruto switched sides: Kenyatta would make him his successor after his departure, that was what the deal was called at the time. But another five years later, Kenyatta wanted nothing more to do with the promise: he allied himself with the hereditary enemy Odinga and left Ruto alone. Such a callous approach must have misled the Kenyans’ taste for identity politics: in any case, the question of whether someone is Kikuyu, Luo or Kalenjin plays at most a secondary role. “It’s the economy that’s taking center stage like never before,” reports the BBC. “The Kenyan electorate has come of age.”
The alleged maturing process was in fact born out of necessity. After two decades of economic upswing, Kenya was caught first by the pandemic and then by the war in Ukraine: A drought currently prevailing in the north of the country is further contributing to the impoverishment of the population. As everywhere in the world, food prices are rising sharply, the state is becoming more and more indebted, the unemployment rate is also rising, and only a small elite is excluded from the decline. Oxfam reports that less than 0.1 percent of the population has more money than the remaining 99.9 percent. The number of the super-rich in Kenya is growing faster than almost anywhere else in the world. “Little rascals against the super-rich”: Ruto’s election slogan fits.
Although he is one of the richest Kenyans himself, Ruto tries to present himself as the son of poor people: as a “hustler-in-chief” who boxed his way from his father’s small farm to a successful businessman and finally to vice president. Nobody in Kenya believes that everything was right during his ascent: However, corruption has long since spread here like a cuckoo in a pigeon’s nest – the theft of tax money is no longer considered libelous.
With his wheelbarrow policy, Ruto wants to turn Kenya into a “hustler nation”: a state in which the “informal” economy of smallholders, street vendors and casual workers takes center stage. That sounds almost revolutionary. However, the revaluation of the common people and the promotion of micro-enterprises threatens to throw the country back decades into the pre-industrial age.
At least that’s how Raila Odinga sees it, who is running as a candidate for the fourth time and has failed three times. The social democrat is considered a modernist: he wants to stop Kenya’s de-industrialization and drive the digital revolution forward. The capital Nairobi is already known as the “Silicon Savannah”. In order to at least narrow the growing gap between rich and poor, Odinga promises the introduction of social programs: 50 euros a month for the part of the population living below the poverty line, improved state health care and free schooling up to college.
Opinion polls predict the scion of the Odinga dynasty to have a narrow lead over the “rascal boss” – the other two candidates are only given the role of extras. Because according to Kenya’s constitution the president must be elected with an absolute majority, experts do not rule out a run-off election. Their result promises to be so tight that even professional prophets do not yet dare to make a forecast.
