Nature 09/08/19 Saint Petersburg and other cities, which will sink if the Arctic melts
For the past 23 thousand years level of world ocean through the melting of the glaciers has risen by 4.6 meters. Increase this figure by another two metres would be catastrophic for millions of people. The complete disappearance of Arctic ice, and this, according to some estimates, will lead to a rise in sea level from seven to eight meters, would be disastrous for the entire planet. But what will happen with Russia?
As the Arctic ice?
the Arctic holds about 10 percent of the total ice on the planet. However, its amount in the region is constantly changing. It depends on the season: in summer, the ice caps are melting, winter is restored, and climate change. While both processes are, of course, interrelated.
In February 2017, the world meteorological organization (WMO) has determined that the amount of sea ice in the Arctic is of 13.38 million square kilometers, 260 thousand less than in January 2016. The reason for its decline WMO experts said that the increase in global temperatures.
After the summer of 2017, the reconstruction of the ice winter was less active in this regard, the area of ice caps in the Arctic, according to estimates of the National office for Aeronautics and space research (NASA), was 1.6 million square kilometers below average over the last 20 years – a total of 4.6 million. Reducing the area of ice in the region is the fourth year in a row, and I assure NASA reaches record levels. The minimum value was observed in 2012, when the size of the ice cap, and all fell to 3.41 million square kilometers. Fortunately, this was followed by an unusually cold summer of 2013 and the volume of Arctic sea ice has increased by a third.
When the Northern ocean will cease to be the Arctic?
According to satellite datath Control, the global sea level is rising at approximately three millimeters per year, and the last 25 years – seven centimeters. However, scientists believe that the process of ice melting over time will accelerate and by the end of the century the global sea level will rise by 60-80 cm. More pessimistic views are held by researchers of the world wildlife Fund: there look forward to raising more than a meter. At the Potsdam Institute for climate research and did predict growth of 130 centimeters. And partly the last assessment in line with the conclusions of the intergovernmental panel on climate change of the United Nations.
In the Arctic, melting ice has almost disappeared perennial ice thickness of over five metres was reported in the Norwegian polar Institute. Scientists estimate that their share in early 2010-ies was reduced from 28 to six percent. The situation is worsened by the fact that in some winter days the temperature rises to values at which the melting of ice. All this suggests that on a planetary scale, until the moment when the Arctic ocean does not remain the ice, not far away. This will cause the global sea level rise, according to some estimates, seven or eight meters.
if Russia Goes on the bottom?
the First results of ice melting in the Arctic, residents of the Northern regions of Russia can already be seen by the naked eye. For example, the coast of the East Siberian and Chukchi seas long ago cleared from the ice edge. However, if the water level will rise several meters, then rejoice that the inhabitants of the coastal territories will not last long.
the consequences of the disappearance of the Northern ice will first have to fight the coastal cities, such as St. Petersburg and Astrakhan. Makhachkala and Taganrog, which are not so high in relation to the level of the sea, also not be good. Experts believe that the full result of the melting of ice on Land and it will lead to an increase in global sea level na 70 meters – these cities will go under water. However, the figure is seven meters capable of turning many settlements in the Russian Venice.
in addition, between Russia and Europe might be a huge sea – the result of a merger of the Baltic, Kara, Caspian and Black seas. However, the possibility of its formation due to the melting of some Arctic ice are only small. The water will flood Nizhneleninskoe lowland, on the territory of which is located in Kaliningrad oblast, and the southern part of the Caspian lowland. Is difficult to have cities along the banks of the Volga in the area from Volgograd to where the river flows into the Caspian sea. Podtopit and the white sea lowland, in the North-West of Russia in Karelia. Will also change the landscape in the North. So, probably increasing the area of Laptevih sea and the East Siberian sea through the territories of the North-Siberian and the Yana-Indigirka lowlands.
But in Central Russia and the far East, the rise in sea level due to melting of Arctic ice will not affect you. The East European and West Siberian plains, and upland are located over the sea at least 100 meters, so they are not scared even the disappearance of all ice cover of the earth. Not threatened by flooding and the Urals. The minimum consequence for the Crimea with the Krasnodar territory.
How to avert the threat?
Despite the fact that for Russia the consequences of melting ice will not be as devastating as the Netherlands or Australia, the rise in sea level will still make to solve the problem of resettlement of the approximately 8 million inhabitants of the flooded areas. Fortunately, the critical moment is the time: according to experts, the existing system of locks will allow it to withstand an increase of 60-80 cm. But to think about, to take the necessary steps to build a new water protection facilities or to erect a special building – still stands.
however, it is hoped that not all the threatening forecasts of researchersbecome. After all, scientists themselves emphasize that the reliability of long-term evaluation lose is estimated at 20-25 years.
Russian Seven
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