The decision to invade Ukraine is part of Vladimir Putin’s vision of Russia’s global role. Breaking down globalization and restoring Russian, Chinese, and US spheres of influence would have served to ensure that the modest size of Russia’s economy still carried weight on a global scale. The economic fallout from the conflict, the impact of sanctions and the reshaping of economic alliances are therefore integral to the invasion’s objectives, but they are not going in the direction Putin wants. The admission of difficulties yesterday by Moscow Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina is over important for two reasons: on the one hand, it shows that if the conflict were to continue for too long, it would weigh heavily on the Russian economy; on the other hand, it shows that Russian companies have no alternative to the current model of trade relations with the West.
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