Alexey Navalny’s confidante Leonid Volkov posted a Russian and English post on Twitter, writing about the Russian approach to the war, the coming winter and warning the West of a ceasefire.
In his opinion, Putin is playing with the European fear of a gas shortage in winter. This fear is the necessary price for the past eight years of indifference and inaction. If Europe bowed to Putin’s terms now, a “nuclear winter” would be imminent in six to eight years.
Putin also longs for a ceasefire to secure the status quo. Volkov, however, is concerned that the principle that “bad peace is better than a good war” will become established in Europe during a break in the war, only until Putin launches another campaign.
Added to this is Ukraine’s dependence on the West, which gives Russia scope for blackmail. According to the thread, Putin will try to turn Western societies against their heads of state.
Volkov warns not to be fooled. The public should also believe in the possibility of a Ukrainian victory and be ready to “grit your teeth and hold out”.
According to his forecast, Putin would now face the most difficult two to three months, and then he would lose. (tsp)