The German record at the Eurovision Song Contest has been devastating over the past six years: the singer Jendrik and the pop duo Sister ended up in the penultimate places in 2021 and 2019. In 2017 Germany was second to last, in 2016 and 2015 even last, only Michael Schulte took fourth place in 2018. Tagesspiegel colleague Joachim Huber has already suggested that Germany should simply not compete at all.

His suggestion was not followed: at the ESC final on Saturday, pop singer and rapper Malik Harris will represent Germany with his song “Rockstars”. As in previous years, the betting odds are clearly against the German representative.

According to a listing by, which includes 17 betting shops, Malik Harris has less than a 1% chance of winning – and is currently seen 24th out of 25.

If you bet on Harris to win, you would get a profit of up to 1000 euros for a euro bet – this shows how bad the singer’s chances of winning are.

Now neither we nor the betting shops can look to the future with 100 percent certainty. A look at the odds of the past few years shows the accuracy: Germany was predicted to be 24th in 2021 (it was 25th), in 2019 the betting agencies put Germany in 25th place (hit!) and in 2018 in third place (it was fourth). There is a clear favorite for 2022.

The Eurovision Song Contest presents itself as a non-political competition and political statements are even expressly forbidden. The great opportunities for the Kalush Orchestra can be explained above all by the Russian war of aggression, which has been going on for two and a half months and has triggered a great wave of solidarity with Ukraine. The country wants to hold the ESC 2023 at home if the expected victory at the ESC 2022 occurs.

Singer Oleh Psiuk from the Kalush Orchestra had already sent small political messages in the context of the previous competition. “We want to thank everyone who supports Ukraine,” he said ambiguously at the press conference after the first semifinal. And at a reception in the German embassy in Italy, the host country, he stated that the song “Stefania”, a mix of rap and folklore, stands for Ukrainian culture, which must not be destroyed. Russia was excluded from the competition this year.