The world economy, according to Figures from the International monetary Fund (IMF) due to customs conflicts, and weakening growth rates in a number of countries under more pressure. The global gross domestic product will grow this year by only 3.5 percent and in 2020 by 3.6 percent, predicts the organization. In October, the IMF had said experts for both years at 3.7 percent.
“We believe that the risks are for a stronger increase of the downward correction,” warned the IMF at the same time. The fluctuations in the financial markets in the industrial countries, the trade disputes and rising interest rates in the United States.
Also, for Germany, have deteriorated, growth prospects accordingly. Here is the forecast fell by a whopping 0.6 points to just 1.3%, Italy by 0.4 points to 0.6 percent. “Production difficulties in the auto industry and a decline in external demand hamper growth by 2019,” it said. The discussion on diesel driving bans have weakened the economic climate, weaker private consumption is made responsible for the development. However, to be expected for 2020 in 1.6 percent growth.
IMF calls for multilateral cooperation
In Italy, expressed a low domestic demand and high credit costs of the development and in France, among other things, the continuing street protests. The hanging game, a EU-added to Britain’s exit. Overall, the IMF for the Eurozone this year, a GDP growth of 1.6 percent. Thus, the Fund lowered its expectations for 2019 in October by 0.3 points.
For the United States are forecast to 2019 2.5 percent, while it will be 2020 by only 1.8 percent. “The Expansion in the US continues, but the forecast assumes a slowdown after the expiry of the fiscal incentives,” said the IMF. 2018, the world’s largest economy, is likely to have increased recently due to the impetus provided by tax reform, by 2.9 percent. One of the dangers for the US economy, the IMF has a prolonged budgetary dispute, by the hundreds of thousands of state money staff currently receive.
For the world’s number two China, the IMF predicts both this as well as for upcoming year, an increase of 6.2 percent. 2018, the growth was down to 6.6 percent, the lowest since almost three decades. “China’s slowdown could be more pronounced than expected, especially if the trade tensions persist.” The United States and China have covered in the past year, each other with punitive tariffs and are looking for a way out of the conflict. “An escalation of trade conflicts already in the forecast taken into account, remains one of the major sources of Risk to the Outlook,” writes the IMF.
The IMF warns, therefore, to the international cooperation. The scope of countries for counter-measures in the event of a significant global economic downturn was lower than before the financial crisis of 2008. “Multilateral cooperation is therefore more important”, it said.
