Quebec currently generates approximately 200 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity, 99.6% of which comes from renewable sources.
But the province also uses fossil fuels to power its cars and trucks, to power its factories, to heat some of its buildings.
The crystal balls being a bit fuzzy on such a horizon, this figure is an approximation. But it is presented as a minimum by Hydro-Québec and by the experts.
According to a study carried out by the firm Dunsky Énergie Climat for the Government of Quebec, it is rather more than 130 TWh of additional energy that will have to be generated by 2050 to electrify most of our vehicles, our buildings and of our industries. And this, after having made colossal efforts to limit the growth of needs thanks to energy efficiency and the generalization of public transport.
The challenge ahead of us is therefore daunting.
This 100 TWh target includes the decarbonization of companies already present here, but excludes any attraction of new factories. The energy needs of the famous “battery industry” that the Legault government seeks to deploy, for example, are not part of it. To meet their needs, it will be necessary to produce beyond the target.
The quest for 100 TWh is an energy production goal. But Quebec faces another challenge: when it is very cold and our heating needs explode, we must have access to this energy in a very short time. Then we need power.
Let’s use the analogy of a car. The gas tank represents the energy it contains. Engine horsepower dictates how much gasoline can be used at once to propel the car.
These energy and power considerations will influence the energy choices available to us.
A final word before examining possible solutions. If we must start planning now to increase our energy capacity, we must also realize that we cannot immediately make all the decisions for the next 30 years.
“This means that we will have to keep some leeway and regularly retest our assumptions,” adds Philippe Dunsky, president of the firm Dunsky Énergie Climat, which advises governments and companies on energy issues.
However, some technologies require more planning than others. It takes about fifteen years to design and build a hydroelectric dam. If we want to be able to count on such an option in less than 30 years, we must therefore study it now. This is what Hydro-Québec’s most recent strategic plan proposes.
Reaching 100 TWh, we understand, will be a pharaonic challenge. Here’s how it might be raised.
This is the first step in our quest towards 100 TWh. Because the electricity that we do not consume, we do not have to produce it.
How much energy can we save in Quebec? And how ? These questions are the subject of intense debate and already confront us with important choices.
Hydro-Quebec assesses the “technico-economic potential” of energy efficiency at approximately 25 TWh. This is the electricity that is technically possible to save, in a profitable way.
This means that no less than one-eighth of all the energy produced in Quebec could be recovered.
However, Hydro-Québec insists that the “commercial” potential actually possible to unlock through programs is much lower. For now, the state-owned company expects to recover 8 TWh by 2030 – barely a third of the technical and economic potential.
Pierre-Olivier Pineau, holder of the Chair of Energy Sector Management at HEC Montreal, agrees that the full 25 TWh cannot be recovered only with voluntary programs. This is why he also pleads for regulations to regulate our electricity consumption.
Expert Philippe Dunsky estimates Quebec’s energy efficiency potential at between 30 and 50 TWh by 2050. But he too believes that regulations will be necessary to achieve such gains.
Currently, Hydro-Québec must demonstrate to the Régie de l’énergie that its energy efficiency programs do not lead to higher electricity rates. It’s contradictory. Residential consumers currently pay about 7 cents per kilowatt hour (kWh) for their electricity. However, we know that developing new sources of supply will be expensive – between 11 and 12 cents per kilowatt hour. Between investing 9 cents to save the consumption of 1 kWh and paying 11 cents to generate 1 new one, the most logical option is however obvious. The current rules therefore lead to a bias towards the generation of new electricity rather than towards the saving of this electricity. They are to be reviewed.
Talk to the energy efficiency experts and the first word you’ll hear is invariably this: heat pump.
These devices are uneven in quality and performance, but their efficiency improves rapidly, especially in cold weather.
When it is -20°C, the air does not seem to contain any heat. This is however false. The true absence of heat occurs at absolute zero, at -273°C. The feat of the heat pump is to extract this heat from the air to bring it into our buildings, even in very cold weather.
In addition, these devices are usually installed within a day, at an approximate cost of $10,000 per residence.
Analyst Jean-François Blain calculates that investing such a sum on 100,000 homes per year for 10 years would save 4.36 TWh in energy and, above all, 1,500 megawatts in power to mitigate the winter peak. The cost would be three times less than generating the same power with wind energy (which would require the equivalent of the entire current wind farm in Quebec).
If the heat pump represents the easy gain, Pierre-Olivier Pineau believes that we will also have to tackle the deficient insulation of our homes, our schools and our businesses.
The first thing to do would be to change the building code to at least require new construction to consume as little energy as possible.
But it will also be necessary to target old buildings, which are more numerous than new ones. Yes, re-insulating a house or school involves costly and complex work.
But we could take inspiration from France, where buildings receive a rating from A to G reflecting their energy performance. Buildings rated F or G, referred to as “energy sieves”, will soon be banned from renting.
One might wonder why a province as cold as Quebec does not tackle the insulation of its buildings with the same vigor as France.
Between 8 and 25 TWh
The exact mix of solutions that will be deployed to generate 100 TWh of additional energy in Quebec is still unknown. But we know one thing: the wind will have a lot to do with it. And in the short term, it is on him that we will bet.
So expect to see wind turbines growing in Quebec.
Some experts like Normand Mousseau, scientific director of the Trottier Energy Institute, and Pierre-Olivier Pineau, of HEC Montreal, even believe that it would be possible to reach the 100 TWh goal with wind energy alone. .
Let’s examine what that would mean.
Considering wind turbines with an average power of 4 MW, it would take about 8,000 of these modern windmills to generate 100 TWh of energy.
That’s 300 new wind turbines per year by 2050. Eventually, the current wind farm would have been multiplied by 10.
These thousands of wind turbines would obviously take up space.
In 2009, the American wind energy research center NREL calculated that an area of 0.35 km2 per megawatt of power is needed in a wind farm.
Expert Pierre-Olivier Pineau suggests dividing this figure by three to take into account the efficiency of wind turbines, which has since improved and will improve further. By multiplying by the total power desired in Quebec, we arrive at an area of approximately 3800 km2, eight times that of the island of Montreal.
Attention: this area is not completely lost. There may be fields or forests between the wind turbines. The machine itself occupies a footprint 100 times smaller. It is the fact that the wind turbines must be spaced out which explains the large surface areas.
We want to install wind farms where it sells, of course, but also as close as possible to distribution networks and places of consumption to minimize losses. Hydro-Québec mentions Saguenay, Côte-Nord and Gaspésie as the most favorable regions in the short term.
Of course, wind turbines come with a big downside: they don’t spin without wind. On average, the efficiency of a wind turbine is only 35%.
Another disadvantage: the wind turbines don’t help us much for the famous winter peak. If it is not windy during very cold weather, they are useless. But wishing for wind is also not the right reflex, since it accelerates the cooling of buildings!
Wind energy must therefore come with energy storage solutions. To some extent, our hydroelectric dams can be used for this purpose. When it is windy, we retain the water from the dams. And when the wind stops, we let it flow through the turbines.
Up to 100 TWh
Will we see the construction of a new dam in Quebec by 2050? This is certainly the most interesting – and controversial – question surrounding our future energy supply.
Hydroelectricity is a form of energy that Quebec knows inside out, adjustable according to our needs and therefore perfect for meeting peak consumption. Large dams are the pride of Quebecers and it is not surprising that the Legault government brandishes them to stimulate our national spirit.
Hydro-Quebec seems favorable to a new dam. It is very likely that a new hydroelectric work will be necessary to balance the fluctuating production of wind energy, internal sources tell us.
Normand Mousseau and Pierre-Olivier Pineau consider that the current dams are sufficient to manage the fluctuations that would be caused by massive wind or solar energy inputs.
However, there is a need to review the way the network is operated, deploy storage solutions and incentivize (or oblige!) individuals to work together to mitigate the peak by moving certain activities and using heat accumulators in their homes. Hydro-Québec also offers financial assistance for the installation of a central heating system that can store heat in a thermal mass to reduce consumption during peak periods1.
“With the information we currently have, dams do not seem to be the least cost solution to meet our needs,” said expert Philippe Dunsky. But I insist on this: you have to be humble, because the analyzes are complex and the costs and technologies are constantly evolving. Let’s keep an open mind and an agile approach. »
The big problem with a new hydroelectric structure is that the best rivers are already in use.
Hydro-Québec and the Legault government want to launch studies to find the best remaining sites, but the chances of finding a gem that no one has yet thought of seem very slim.
This brings us back to the projects already studied in the past.
It is without doubt the most studied project. Announced in the late 1980s, the Grande-Baleine complex could have generated up to 3,200 MW of power and 16 TWh of energy – and would have flooded an area of 1,667 square kilometers, or three and a half times the area of the Montreal Island. The opposition of the Crees finally got the better of the project. Would they be more willing to participate today? Nothing is less sure.
An old Hydro-Québec strategic plan describes a tantalizing potential of 850 MW of power and 3.8 TWh of energy. But the opposition of the natives, the MRC of Minganie, environmental groups and white water sports enthusiasts organized themselves within the “Alliance Muteshekau-shipu”. She even managed to obtain “legal personality” status for the river. At Hydro-Québec, we take note and say that we no longer believe too much in this possibility.
The potential (1200 MW of power, 5.5 TWh of energy) is even greater than that of Magpie. The opposition is less visible there, but it will nevertheless require the active participation of the Innu, which is not won. The Rivières Foundation has already spoken out against the project.
An old Hydro-Québec strategic plan indicates a potential of 132 MW of power and 0.6 TWh of energy for this project on the Kipawa River in Témiscamingue. The idea has raised a lot of opposition in the past. Today, a more modest project of two mini power stations involving no dam (and therefore no flooding of territory) is carried out by the MRC of Témiscamingue and various Aboriginal nations. It is hard to see Hydro-Québec landing in the portrait by resuscitating the initial project.
For expert Pierre-Olivier Pineau, the question is heard: there will be no new dam in Quebec. “None of these sites seem realistic to me. It will cost too much and there will be no social acceptability,” he predicted.
Before building new dams, the first thing is to optimize the ones we already have. By replacing the turbine-generator units of our old power stations, Hydro-Québec estimates that it can generate an additional 2,000 MW. Caution: these gains would add power to the grid, but very little net power since the hydroelectric reservoirs would not be expanded. It’s the equivalent of increasing the power of a car’s engine by keeping the same tank of gas. These power gains will nevertheless make it easier to add intermittent power such as wind or solar to the grid. They therefore indirectly bring us closer to the 100 TWh target.
Hydro-Quebec is studying a hydroelectric option used elsewhere in the world, but never in Quebec: “pumped reserves”. Forget the flooding of huge territories. Here, the hydroelectric reservoir is much smaller. The big difference is that once turbined, the water is pumped back into the tank. This pumping obviously consumes energy, but we can pump the water when we have a surplus of power and turbine it when we need to inject it into the network. This solution can also be seen as wind energy storage. If we pump water when it is windy, we can then generate electricity when the wind drops.
Up to 25.9 TWh for the Grande-Baleine, Magpie, Petit-Mécatina and Tabaret projects
Now that the Gentilly-2 plant has been decommissioned, none of the experts we consulted are betting on a return to nuclear power in Quebec. “Right now, we have other priorities,” says analyst Philippe Dunsky.
Undetermined
Solar energy provides barely 0.002% of our electricity production. Most experts see this proportion increasing by 2050, but believe there is no rush to install large-scale solar panels. “According to our modeling, solar will become competitive with wind within 10 to 15 years. So I would say there is no rush to go for it now,” says expert Philippe Dunsky, who still expects about 30 TWh of solar energy to be deployed between 2035 and 2050. .
Up to 30 TWh by 2050
Our quest for the 100 TWh goal risks taking us beyond the borders of Quebec, and more specifically to Newfoundland. First, because about 15% of Quebec’s electricity comes from the Churchill Falls complex in Labrador. Under a contract negotiated in 1969, we obtain this energy at a derisory price. But this contract expires in 2041 and we will have to renegotiate with Newfoundland if we want to keep this electricity. Then because in the opinion of several experts, including Pierre-Olivier Pineau, the most interesting and realistic hydroelectric project for Quebec is also in Labrador: that of Gull Island. It could generate nearly 12 TWh of energy, much of which could supply Quebec if the two provinces manage to reach an agreement.