Tens of thousands dead and many more wounded and traumatized people. Can one nevertheless speak about encouraging lessons from this terrible war?
The extreme situation revealed the whole range of human actions: bestial cruelty, hatred and ignorance – but also the powers released by the will to survive, as well as compassion, helpfulness, and the ability to learn.
Ukrainians have shown unexpected resilience after the Russian attack six months ago. The Germans and their allies in Europe, America and Asia also surprised Vladimir Putin. And yourself at the same time.
The thesis that the West is decadent was not only circulating in the Kremlin. Doubts had long since penetrated the core of democracies: Are the values they invoke just lip service? Are they willing to endure limitations to defend these values?
Half a year of war has uncovered a double error: Civil societies are more resilient than Putin thought – and more resilient than they thought themselves.
In order to understand why this could happen, one has to tear open wounds, in other words: analyze the fatal mistakes in Russia policy. The systemic advantage of the open society is not that it makes fewer mistakes than an authoritarian regime.
But in the fact that it is usually able to correct mistakes due to criticism and the pressure to justify them more quickly. The dictatorship, on the other hand, punishes dissent instead of seeing it as an impetus for progress.
Large majorities in Germany had clung to the belief longer than anywhere else that Putin’s Russia would not start a war and would reliably supply gas. The warnings from the Balts and Poles were dismissed as Russophobia, and after the Iraq war and the NSA affair the US secret services were treated with the greatest mistrust.
The next mistake: Ukraine will not withstand Russian superiority. Another: the military is no longer so important these days. The Bundeswehr was empty, the Americans, British, and Poles provided the decisive military assistance.
Will the warnings of a “Winter of Rage” and popular uprisings soon also – hopefully – prove to be false? According to a survey, 46 percent of citizens are willing to accept significant additional financial burdens in order for the sanctions against Russia to take effect.
That’s a surprising number. Because that is also part of the learning experience: it is not that easy to design sanctions in such a way that they harm the attacker significantly more than your own economy. Germany had made itself dangerously vulnerable by being heavily dependent on Russian energy.
It is now painfully correcting its misjudgments and omissions. It succeeds because the country has allies in Europe and the world who help.
For Putin, the record is miserable. He achieves the opposite of what he aspires to. He wanted to force Ukraine into a Russian-dominated economic union that would stand up alongside the EU, prevent further NATO memberships, and show the world that Russian energy was essential.
With the war, he made enemies of almost all Ukrainians. Sweden and Finland join NATO. Europe accelerates decoupling from Russian energy. Where is his ability to correct?
The war and the dying won’t end any time soon. However, Ukraine will hold its ground with Western help.
The democracies’ ability to learn and correct will be tested further in the years to come, by China and others. They no longer dominate the globe as clearly as they did 30 years ago when the wall fell.
But they must not make themselves smaller than they are either. Together they still account for more than half of the global economy.
Of course, authoritarian states control more than half of the raw materials and energy reserves. A clear view of one’s own strengths and vulnerabilities becomes vital for survival.
