History 05/02/20 What would have happened if the Soviet Union signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact
the debate about how justified was the conclusion of Stalin in August 1939 non-aggression Pact with Germany – in fact, the Treaty of Alliance directed against England and France escalated in connection with the 80th anniversary of this event.
a Narrow range of possibilities
it is believed that the initiative in this matter showed Hitler’s Germany. This was written and the Minister of foreign Affairs of the Third Reich, Ribbentrop. It is also well known that at the same time, in August 1939, Stalin and Voroshilov were in Moscow negotiating with the British and French commissioners concerning a military Alliance against Germany. Hence, formally, the Soviet leadership had to choose from.
it is Also well known, however, that Britain and France have not shown sufficient interest in the conclusion of a Treaty with the Soviet Union against Germany. It is expressed primarily in the appointment of such heads of mission, who had no competence to discuss and decide with Stalin the most important practical objectives of such a Union and sign contracts. This fatal miscalculation policy of the Western powers before the Second world war, acknowledged in his memoirs, Winston Churchill.
One of the reasons why the Union of England, France and the Soviet Union in 1939 did not take place, was the intransigence of Poland. The Polish government flatly refused to let the Soviet troops as a Union on its territory to repel a German attack. It put notify the Western powers, who were forced to reckon with the position of Poland. As said the commander in chief of the Polish army, Marshal rydz-smigly, “if the Russians enter the territory of Poland, they will never leave it.” He is also credited with the phrase: “With the Germans we risk losing our freedom, with Russians, their soul.” In the result, the Red Army still entered in 1939 in Poland, but not as a Union.
Thus, taking into account the position of the Western powers and Poland, from the Soviet Union to the 20th of August 1939 really only had two options: to accept the German offer or to ignore it, generally does not interfere in the events taking place in Europe West of Soviet borders. Stalin chose the first. You can try to imagine what would have happened if the Soviet leader has chosen the second option.
Britain and France did not intend “to send Hitler to the East”
Should reject as illogical and untenable arguments, though in the absence of a non-aggression Pact with the USSR Hitler, after the conquest of Poland, continued the trek East, against the Soviet Union, with the support of the governments of England and France. It seems impossible for the following reasons.
first, if Britain and France wanted “to direct Hitler’s aggression to the East”, they would have no reason to declare war on Germany two days after the attack on Poland. It is clear that the armed forces of Britain and France would remain passive in any way. But to declare war on Germany does not fit with their alleged “anti-Soviet” intent. And, of course, the ridiculous assertion that Britain and France would help Hitler in the conquest of the USSR. The hostility of the Western powers to the Soviet Union in the period September 1939 – June 1941 was due only to the fact that the USSR was a non-belligerent ally of Hitler. England and France, if they wanted to show their anti-Soviet intentions, was a good excuse to declare war on the USSR when the Red Army crossed the Polish border on 17 September 1939, or attacked Finland on 30 November of the same year. But they did not do it even then.
secondly, the German General staff was not available, then plans for war with the Soviet Union, designed for the complete defeat and conquest of our country. In addition, Hitler started a war with the Soviet Union, leaving the front with France.
Thus, threats are notmediocre military confrontation neither with Germany nor with the Western powers, no mythical Union “of the imperialists against the USSR” (which arose only after the Second world war) from the Soviet Union in September 1939 was not the case, if the USSR had not entered into any contracts, and the Red Army remained in the old Soviet Western borders.
Inaction seemed less favorable for the USSR
the Passivity of the Soviet Union meant that the Wehrmacht occupies the entire territory of pre-war Poland. In this case, the initial boundaries for the Wehrmacht in its forthcoming attack on the USSR would be at 150-300 km to the East than they were in reality in 1941.
Stalin was perfectly aware that the British and French armed forces will do nothing and will not help Poland. Germany defeated Poland in a matter of weeks. It would be strange to remain inert during this period. The Soviet invasion of Poland during this period without the agreement with Germany could lead to unwanted military incident. It was logical to pre-negotiate with Germany about the partition of Poland, since Poland itself and the Western powers did not want to enlist the support of the Soviet Union against Germany.
Of the two real possibilities Stalin chose the one who promised the immediate benefit of the USSR. The fact that the implementation of such a policy Germany would so increase that in a short time mastered all continental Europe and attacked the Soviet Union in that time was not foreseen, probably nobody in the world except Hitler. The key miscalculation of Stalin, who hoped for a mutual weakening of Germany and the Western powers, was suddenly a quick cessation of the resistance of France to Hitler in the summer of 1940. Only this time, the Pact with Germany was for the USSR to turn around its unprofitable side.
Thus, the alternative to the Pact, Stalin was, but in this case he doesn’t get the Western Ukraine, Western Belarus, the Baltic States. That is, in the autumn of 1939 she looked extremely disadvantageous. Predeliver the word to Churchill that cannot be attributed to the well-wishers of the Soviet Union:
“the Soviet Union was vital to move as far to the West of the original positions of the German armies… They [Russian] had by force or fraud to occupy the Baltic States and most of Poland before they attack. If their policy was cold and calculating, she was also at that time highly realistic.”
Well, as an alternative in the form of the Union of the Western powers and the USSR against Germany eliminated the moment the Western powers, together with Poland.
© Russian Seven
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