History 05/01/20 What would happen to Russia if the Russians beat the Japanese in 1905
When in January, 1904, Japan attacked the far Eastern possessions of Russia, almost nobody in Russia doubted that the victory will be for our country. Furthermore, this opinion was shared by most politicians in Europe. Very high was the authority of the Russian Empire, especially in the military sphere. Too immature it seemed Japan, less than forty years ago entered the path of modernization and industrial development.
Russia had the forces to continue the war and win it
the Possibility of a turning point in the war in favor of Russia remained in the summer of 1905. Despite the loss of Port Arthur, leaving the South Manchuria and the destruction of the fleet in the battle of Tsushima, Russia’s prospects were favourable. The Russian land army was not defeated. It has continuously increased and almost twice outnumbered the Japanese army.
the Contract with Kaiser Wilhelm II, signed by Nicholas II during a meeting at björkö 11 (24) July 1905, guaranteed Russia’s security on the Western border and the ability to transfer troops from there to strengthen the Manchu army. Moreover, as Kaiser himself more sympathetic to Russia than Japan. At the very beginning of the war he noted in the report of his Ambassador in Tokyo: “protect Russian interests and the predominance of the white race against the growing dominance of yellow. So our sympathies should be on the side of Russia”.
Japan was extremely malnourished. During the war, taxes in Japan had to raise almost half, whereas in Russia they grew by 5%. Twenty years later, in 1925, the American historian Tyler Dennett wrote that “the conclusion of peace [in August 1905 – J. B.] had saved her [Japan] from the collapse or total defeat in the confrontation with Russia”. The prospects for the continuation of the war was favourable for Russia if she was able to survive politically. It vnutripolostnoecal complications made for the tsarist regime impossible a military solution to far Eastern problems.
However, sending a delegation headed by Sergei Witte to the peace talks in the U.S. Portsmouth, Nicholas II hoped that the Russian conditions are not accepted by the Japanese, the war will continue, and even the most zealous Russian opposition will not be able to blame the king that he did nothing to stop the war. After the Japanese delegation had put forward on 27 July (9 August) obviously unacceptable peace terms, Witte put the extreme conditions, only the assignment of the southern half of Sakhalin and southern Manchuria (the Kuril Islands was in the possession of Japan since 1875) and categorically rejected the claims of indemnity and limitation of the Russian fleet in Vladivostok.
a Russian delegation was published on the 16th (29th) of August. Everyone was stunned when the head of the Japanese delegation Komura said that all proposals are accepted. “The whole day went in a daze, wrote Nicholas II in diary 17 (30) Aug. Today just started to get used to the idea that the world will be concluded”.
Objective quest of Russia to the East
the Clash between Russia and Japan was not the result of some misunderstanding or adventure of some close to the king of persons, as is sometimes argued in academic and scientific literature. Nicholas II took to heart the interests of Russia in the far East. He was convinced, believed emigre historian of his reign, Sergey Oldenburg, that the future of the Russian Empire related to its adoption in ice-free seas of the Pacific ocean.
This access to the oceans lay not in Vladivostok, and in the ports of Eastern China and Korea. Hence the interest of Nicholas II to the Russian development of Manchuria. Eastern extension of the TRANS-Siberian railway connected Transbaikalia and Primorye directly through Chinese territory. Building this railway, Russia clearly showed that it did not intend to leave ever. In 1895, Russia forced Japan to abandon the requirements of kitAyu on the Liaodong Peninsula, after she had rented it from China.
the attitude of Nicholas II to the far Eastern policy could affect the episode connected with him personally. In 1891, when he was heir to the throne, toured the Asian countries, in the Japanese city of Otsu he was attacked and wounded with a sabre fanatical Japanese policeman. Perhaps Nicholas II ever since wanted to show who in the far East the owner. He then did not name the Japanese as “monkeys”.
But regardless of personal preferences and aptitudes of the last Russian Emperor, objective tendencies of Empire-building pushed Russia to the rounding of their far Eastern possessions. “Russia was firmly establish on Pecinisca Bay and find your natural remedy at its free harbours, otherwise all the labors and sacrifices of many years would have been barren, and the great Siberian Empire would have remained just a giant dead end” – quoted in Oldenburg the words of the American historian S. Tyler.
Might not occur, not only the revolution in Russia, but also both world wars.
Russia has won the geopolitical attitude of victory over Japan? It is firmly established not only in Manchuria but also in Korea. Russia also would gain predominant influence in China.
This development is surely over time would lead Russia to clash with the US and Britain, who supported Japan in the war. On the other hand, it could lead to a triple Alliance of Russia. Germany and France both powers supported Russia. If so, then the First world war would not have happened or there would be a completely different configuration.
For Russia, the most dangerous of all was, of course, a collision with another strong land power, and it could only be Germany. Britain and the United States as a Maritime power such an immediate threat is not represented. Confrontation with them would the type of “cold war” with a separate local conflicts.
the Imprsim ambitions of Japan would have suffered a crushing blow in the Bud.
victory in the war would enhance the prestige of the Imperial power in Russia has weakened domestic political tension, it is possible that would prevent the development of events in the revolutionary scenario.
of Course, it was hard to expect that the Russian Empire would come “the Golden age”. But there is every reason to believe that the history of the twentieth century would have been to our country more favorable, less tragic. And it seems that the first fork, uvedshim Russia this path was the unfortunate defeat in the war with Japan.
Yaroslav Butakov
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© Russian Seven
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